The Future of Sports Betting: Exchanges, Prediction Markets, and the End of -110

The sports betting landscape is changing fast-and if you ask Alex Kane, CEO of Sporttrade, we're in the middle of a complete transformation. On the latest episode of The Sharps Report, Kane joins Matt Perrault to break down where the industry is heading and why the old ways of doing business may not survive the next five years.

From peer-to-peer exchanges to prediction markets and price-sensitive consumers, Kane sees a future that favors transparency, competition, and radically lower fees. Here's what you need to know.

Prediction Markets Will Kill the -110

One of Kane's boldest predictions? The standard -110 vig on spread bets is on its last legs.

"In three years," Kane says, "the average NFL moneyline, spread, and total will be something like +100 / -101. That's how competitive the pricing will get."

Sporttrade operates as a prediction market, letting users buy and sell positions based on probabilities-like trading stocks on a sports outcome. You can bet "yes" or "no" on something happening (e.g., Scottie Scheffler winning the U.S. Open), and the price moves in real-time based on in-game events.

That real-time liquidity is key. Much like retail brokerages (think Robinhood or Coinbase), Sporttrade gives bettors the chance to sell their position at any point, with prices shifting constantly as the game unfolds.

It's a model that could reshape how bettors think-and more importantly, how much they pay.

Exchanges Will Drive Prices Down-And That's Good for Everyone

Sporttrade isn't the only company innovating. Emerging operators like Novig and Prophet are pushing peer-to-peer betting exchanges, removing the traditional sportsbook from the equation and letting users trade directly.

While the models differ slightly-Sporttrade is a prediction market, while others act more like traditional exchanges-Kane sees far more overlap than difference.

"They're all marketplaces," he says. "The common thread is many sources of supply and many sources of demand. That drives competition, which drives prices down."

In that world, six-leg parlays might not carry a 25% hold. Kane envisions a future where even parlays have just a 1% hold-a shocking shift from today's norm.

A Broken System: Why U.S. Sports Betting Gets a C-

Despite rapid legalization since 2018, Kane isn't impressed with how the U.S. has rolled out regulated betting.

Why? Because entrenched interests-casinos, leagues, and teams-helped write the rules in many states, creating massive barriers to entry and limiting innovation.

"We handed the keys to those who stood to make the most money," Kane says. "And that forced American entrepreneurs offshore."

He believes a federal regulatory model, similar to what's now emerging via the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) and prediction markets like Kalshi, could solve that. Rather than 50 fragmented state-by-state regimes-many of which favor monopolies or require costly "market access" deals-Kane wants a level playing field.

The Fliff Question: What Counts as Sports Betting?

With social sportsbooks like Fliff operating under sweepstakes laws and marketing aggressively in states without legal betting, many wonder whether they're skirting regulation.

"There's a spectrum," he says. "Some are thoughtful, some are trying to buy time. But the tax implications for a company like ours make that model unsustainable."

Why We Need Principle-Based Regulation

One of Kane's biggest concerns is that U.S. betting regulation is overly prescriptive. Many states follow a "rules-based" model: operators must follow an exact checklist-down to how many cameras a poker room must have-rather than a flexible framework.

Compare that to "principle-based" regulation, like what the CFTC uses, where regulators set broad goals (protect customers, promote fair pricing) and let operators figure out how to meet them.

Ontario adopted this approach in 2022-and now hosts 30+ licensed operators, including major exchanges. Kane believes U.S. states should follow suit.

"Give regulators breathing room," he says. "Right now, we're tying both hands behind their backs."

Education Is the Final Frontier

How do you teach the average bettor that -110 is a bad deal? Or that price matters just as much in sports betting as it does in investing?

Kane thinks the exchanges themselves may solve that problem-by making price comparison simple.

"If everyone charged a flat 1% commission, suddenly it's easy to compare," he says. "You don't need math. Three is less than five is less than seven. It's all out in the open."

That transparency could be what finally pushes bettors to demand better prices-and force sportsbooks to deliver.

Where to Find Sporttrade

A web platform and live charting features are also launching soon. For more, visit Sporttrade.com or search for the app in your state.

The next five years could bring more change to sports betting than the last fifty. Whether it's prediction markets, peer-to-peer models, or federally regulated exchanges, one thing is clear: the industry is evolving-and fast.

And for consumers? That means better prices, more choices, and the end of -110 might finally be in sight.

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