The Genesis Invitational Betting Guide (PGA)
Daniel Berger (18/1) was victorious at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am thanks to a clutch eagle putt on his final hole. Berger edged out young Maverick McNealy by two strokes en-route to his fourth PGA Tour title. Leading the tournament after 54 holes, Jordan Spieth (featured in last week’s article) was unable to get the job done and win for the first time since 2017.
The PGA Tour heads to Riveria Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, for the Genesis Invitational. We will see an absolutely stacked field this week, resembling that of a Major. Only 121 players will be teeing it up at Riveria, but eight of the top-10 golfers in the world will be in the mix for the $9,300,000 pot. Tiger Woods, a regular host of this event, will not compete as he continues his recovery from a back injury.
Coming off a win in Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks ago, Dustin Johnson returns to the PGA circuit and is the overwhelming betting favorite at +550. DJ will have his work cut out for him this week in California, as Jon Rahm (+1300), Justin Thomas (+1300), Rory McIlroy (+1330), and Xander Schauffele (+1500) are some big names to keep an eye on. Adam Scott (+3400) will be defending his title after winning the event last year with a final score of 11-under-par.
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Previous Winners
- 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
- 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
- 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
- 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
Course Preview
Riveria Country Club measures around just 7,233 yards, but it is deceptively long. Two of the three Par 5s on the scorecard play just under 600 yards, and there are seven par 4s that measure between 450-500 yards. Types of golfers that succeed here are excellent ball-strikers who are above average with their long irons. Bogey avoidance will be another crucial stat to zone in on, as many of these longer holes will play over-par on the week. The Poa Annua green complexes at Riveria are quite undulating, and there will be lots of misses on short putts if golfers don’t take the extra time to focus on their strokes.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 scoring (450-500 yards)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Putting on Poa Annua greens
Outright Betting Picks
Justin Thomas (+1500 on BetMGM)
Thomas comes into Riveria hoping to improve upon his runner-up finish in 2019 and win his first Genesis Invitational championship. Due to the long, challenging holes on this track, approach play is crucial. J.T. led the PGA in strokes gained: approach in 2020 and has top-10 in bogey avoidance. He performs excellently on Par 4s between 450-500 yards and will see seven of them this week in California. Thomas has not finished worse than T13 in seven starts this season and is knocking on the door of a win.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1700 on BetMGM)
DeChambeau has improved each time he has teed it up at Riveria. His last three performances at this event include a T41, a T15, and a T5. He led the entire field in strokes gained: tee-to-green last year and took advantage of his distance off the tee to cut corners. DeChambeau ranked fifth in 2020 in Par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 and will have no problem reaching the three Par 5s in two shots.
Longshot Betting Picks
Carlos Ortiz (+6700 on BetMGM)
Ortiz has been on a phenomenal run over the past three months. Some of his finishes include a win at the Houston Open, a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, and a T4 at the Waste Management Pheonix Open. The product of Mexico has fared well at Riveria his last few times out. He will hope to improve on his T26 performance here in 2020 and his T9 in 2019.
Russell Henley (+7100 on BetMGM)
Another player I fancy because of his course history and strong recent form is Russell Henley. In nine starts this season, Henley already has a T3, T4, and T11 to his name. His rolling stats are outstanding. So far in the young season, the 31-year-old ranks 12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and fourth in strokes gained: approach. He will hope to improve on his T17 finish at Riveria in 2020.
Other Betting Picks
Bubba Watson – Top-10 Finish (+500 on BetMGM)
The three-time winner of this event (2018, 2016, 2014) is almost an auto-bet at Riveria. Despite his inconsistencies, he still ranked fourth on Tour in Par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards in 2020. Riveria sets up exceptionally well for lefties, and Watson is as long and creative off the tee as anyone in the game.
Sergio Garcia – Top-10 Finish (+600 on BetMGM)
The Spaniard has performed very well at Riveria Country Club with three top-six finishes in his last nine appearances. It’s a Ryder Cup year for Garcia, and he should come into the event rested and motivated to get things rolling. Garcia is plenty long off the tee, ranking third in strokes gained: off-the-tee in 2020-21. As long as the ball-striking is there, I like his chances of another strong finish.
Event Plays
- Top Canadian – Corey Conners (+275 on BetMGM)
- Top South American – Joaquin Niemann (+173 on BetMGM)
- Top Asian – Hideki Matsuyama (+210 on BetMGM)
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.