The Match 2023 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Curry/Thompson vs. Mahomes/Kelce

It's a slow time of year in the sports world, so let us enjoy a contrived made-for-TV event that features star athletes taking part in a sport other than the one that brought them fame and fortune.

The eighth edition of The Match will take place Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET at the Wynn Golf Course in Las Vegas, with TNT offering television coverage.

The first version of The Match was a head-to-head duel between PGA Tour stars Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, but the event has been featuring stars from other sports in recent years. This time around, we're getting an NFL vs. NBA matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will take on Golden State Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in a 12-hole match. The format is a scramble, meaning that players from each team will hit a shot and then use the better of the two shots. The lowest score between the two teams wins the hole.

Curry and Thompson are favored to win at -265, while underdogs Mahomes and Kelce were getting +225 odds at DraftKings as of Monday.

Let's dig into The Match VIII and see if there's any betting value to be had.

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Best Bets for The Match 2023

Here are my thoughts and predictions for the latest round of The Match.

Handicapping The Match 2023

Not only is Curry arguably the greatest shooter in NBA history, but he's a pretty good golfer, too. With a reported handicap of 0.1, Curry is basically a scratch golfer. He's even teed it up in two events on the Korn Ferry Tour, which is sort of the PGA Tour's minor league.

In 2017, Curry shot 74-74 at the Ellie Mae Classic and missed the cut by 11 shots. He returned to the Ellie Mae in 2018 and shot a first-round 71, but Curry ballooned to a second-round 86, missed the cut and was dead last in the field by 10 shots through the first two rounds.

Bottom line: Steph is very good at golf by the standards of weekend muni-course players, but not by the standards of touring professionals.

Mahomes reportedly carries a 7 handicap. Kelce's handicap is said to be 11, Thompson's 12. (For the uninitiated, the difference in handicaps equates to the expected difference in scores between two golfers playing the same course.)

If The Match were decided by total strokes, it would be foolhardy to bet on Mahomes and Kelce, since their combined handicaps are about 8 strokes worse than Curry and Thompson's. Mahomes and Kelce would also be hard-pressed to win in a best-ball format, where each team uses the lowest score of its two members on each hole. Curry's superiority would be difficult for the two Chiefs to overcome.

The scramble format is another story, however. As noted earlier, in a scramble event, each team gets to use its best shot. If Mahomes belts a 280-yard drive down the middle of the fairway, and Kelce hooks his tee shot into the left rough, the Chiefs would both play their next shots from where Mahomes' drive came to rest.

A scramble can be an equalizer, especially if all the players involved are reasonably capable golfers, as is the case here. Mahomes and Kelce are by no means extraordinary golfers, but their handicaps suggest they are competent. Between the two of them, they should be able to find fairways and hit greens in regulation. Unless Curry is knocking down flagsticks and setting up the Warriors with a series of short birdie putts, Mahomes and Kelce should be able to stay close in this one and turn it into a putting contest.

Also, The Match is a 12-hole event rather than an 18-hole event. The less golf to be played, the better the chances for the underdogs to pull off an upset.

Curry and Thompson are certainly better than 50/50 to win The Match. But with odds of -265, they're being given an implied 72.6% chance of winning, Given the format, I don't think their chances are quite that good, and I think the price is right to bet the underdogs.

Pick: Mahomes/Kelce +225

Prediction: Mahomes/Kelce win 1-up