The Match 9 Odds & Picks: McIlroy, Homa, Thompson & Zhang (2024)
This doesn’t necessarily strike someone as a “crazy” event to bet on, but the ninth iteration of Capitol One’s “The Match” is far from your four-day slog of a golf tournament. Funny enough, you’d be crazy not to get in on Monday night’s action under the lights in West Palm Beach, Fla.
The Match has a renewed intrigue this time around. Instead of insipid team play with football players and champion golfers of yesteryear jabbing one another with pre-canned trash talk into windblown AirPods, two male and two female golfers in the prime of their careers will try to win a series of skins challenges for First Tee charities.
The Match 9 Odds & Picks: McIlroy, Homa, Thompson & Zhang (2024)
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
The Players
Rory McIlroy is the headliner, naturally. The Northern Irishman known for bombing drives and his articulate brogue will bring the eyeballs to the screen.
SoCal native and six-time PGA Tour winner Max Homa is a Twitter favorite and on quite a recent tear of good form. The gentlemen really have their hands full with the two female competitors.
Lexi Thompson is an 11-time winner on the LPGA Tour and has a massive social media following. She will have the poise to dish the shade and back it up with stellar golf.
My favorite is young phenom Rose Zhang. She famously won her second NCAA championship two weeks before also winning the 2023 Mizuho Americas Open in her LPGA debut. The success on Zhang’s horizon is perceived to be unlimited.
The Format
The four will play 12 holes after dusk at The Park in West Palm Beach, with varying charity purses available to win as “skins” on each hole. There will also be side bets and likely cameos from Charles Barkley and other celebrities in attendance. The golfer who earns the most money for his or her charity will be deemed the champion. The par-3 holes will feature the same teeing area, while the longer holes will see separate men’s and women’s tee boxes.
Rory McIlroy
“Rors” is the No. 2 ranked golfer in the world and bullies even the most beastly tracks around the globe. I foresee him coming out of the gate with a massive drive and approach on the opening par-5, sending one over the bow by carding an eagle 3. From there, McIlroy must stay on track with “The Chuckster” mocking his accent and the like. To get plus money on an outright seems soft and exploitable.
Picks: Which Player Will Win Most Skins Money? +210 [1u]; Who Will Win the Skin on Hole 1? +1200 [1u]
Rose Zhang
The 20-year-old future of women’s professional golf has won everything there is to win on her way to full-time status on the LPGA Tour. Her wedge game is world-class, regardless of gender. For the spectacle of this event, expect a level playing field for Zhang and Thompson, where the young prodigy will clean up. This is especially true on the short par-3 third hole.
Picks: Which Player Will Win Most Skins Money? +300 [0.5u]; Who Will Win the Skin on Hole 3? +1800 [0.5u]
Will Any Player Make an Eagle on Hole 1?
I believe McIlroy or Homa will have eagle putts right off the bat, but Zhang and Thompson will drive from the forward tees where all bets (and distance advantage) go by the wayside. One of these incredible athletes will card a 3 to kick the show off right.
Pick: Yes +175 [0.5u]
All Players To Hit the Green in 2 Shots on Hole 6
I’ll leave you with this juicy nugget. No way this isn’t just a mistake. Hole six is a very short par-4 that might even be set up to be drivable for all four golfers. That means the large green complex will have no worse than a wedge inward. To earn 30-1 on the chipping ability of four elite Tour pros is practically stealing. We do what we have to do.
Pick: Yes +3000 [1u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: