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The Players Championship Betting Guide (PGA)

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Bryson DeChambeau (+1300) stole the show at Bay Hill and claimed his eighth career PGA Tour title at just 27-years-old. DeChambeau edged out Englishman Lee Westwood by one stroke in some challenging scoring conditions on the final day of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His week was highlighted by a sensational 370-yard drive on Saturday to clear the water on the Par 5 sixth hole.

Golf fans will be treated to the strongest field of the year this week as the Tour will head to the east coast of Florida for the Players Championship. Forty-eight of the top-50 ranked golfers will tee it up at TPC Sawgrass for a chance to win one of the most illustrious titles in golf. As many of you can recall last year, the 2020 Players Championship was canceled after the first round due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

World number one and 2020 Masters winner Dustin Johnson (+1200) is the betting favorite, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1600), Bryson DeChambeau (+1700), Jon Rahm (+1700), and Justin Thomas (+1900). McIlroy won this event in 2019 and is one of the best Pete Dye golfers in the field. Brooks Koepka announced his withdrawal due to a knee strain after finally recovering from a string of injuries and winning the Waste Management Open in February.

Special Offer: Bet $4, Win $250 if Bryson DeChambeau Makes the Top 5 >>

Previous Winners

  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)

Course Preview

TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, is a classic Pete Dye design that will play as a Par 72 and measures at 7,189 yards long. Largely a second shot course, TPC Sawgrass rewards strong iron play due to the multiple water hazards in play. Big numbers are out there if golfers don’t plot their way around the course meticulously and fail to make the right shot selections. This course featured the ninth-most bogeys and fourth-most double bogeys in 2019.  The course runs typically firm and fast, and the players will need to be sharp on these lightning-fast Bermuda putting surfaces.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Par 4 scoring
  • Putting on Bermuda greens

Outright Betting Picks

Justin Thomas (+1900 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We are getting the number three ranked golfer in the world at a discount this week due to some poor recent form. However, He showed some very positive signs his last time out at the WGC with a T15 finish. This is largely a second-shot course, and approach play has proven to be the most significant stat at this event in determining the winner. Thomas ranked first in strokes gained: approach in 2020 and is still in the top-five this year despite not playing his best golf. If he figures out his driver this week and keeps the ball in the fairway, he should have great success at TPC Sawgrass. Thomas would love to find the winner’s circle hereafter finishes of T3 in 2016 and T11 in 2018.

Collin Morikawa (+2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
When you combine ball-striking and approach games, there are very few golfers in the world that can match Morikawa in both facets. His most recent win at WGC proved how lethal he can be when he hits almost every fairway, has the best approach numbers, and the putter cooperates. Morikawa picked up a new putting style before his win in Bradenton, and it made a world of difference. He has become perhaps the best iron player in the game over the last two years, ranking first in strokes gained: approach in 2021. His win last season at the PGA Championship proves he can win in the strongest of fields.

Long Shot Betting Picks

Joaquin Niemann (+6600 on DraftKings Sportsbook) 
The Talented golfer from Chile has already had two runner-up finishes in 2021 (Sentry Tournament of Champions, Sony Open). He has played some tremendous golf and is maturing in all facets of his game – including putting. His combination of driving distance and accuracy has him ranked first in ball-striking this season. Fourth in scoring average, third in birdie average, Niemann is a solid bet at a very nice number this week.

Adam Scott (+8000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is simply too big of a number for Scott and what he has achieved at the Players Championship. In his last five appearances at this event, Scott has finishes of T12, T11, T6, T12, and T38. His recent form has been solid, with eight of eight made cuts this season, including a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Other Betting Picks

Webb Simpson – Top-5 Finish (+550 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
TPC Sawgrass is a perfect track for Simpson’s game. He is short but accurate off the tee, has great irons, and is one of the best putters on Bermuda greens. In the last five years, Simpson has a win here, two T16s and a T17. His form has been excellent this year, with four top-10s in just nine events – including his most recent T6 finish at the WGC.

Abraham Ancer Top-10 Finish (+750 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
I really like this number for Ancer, who fared well at this event in 2019 (T12) and is coming in with some strong form. The Mexican thrives on shorter courses and has a strong track record on Pete Dye designs. He has a fifth at the American Express in January and second at the Masters after 54 holes before falling back to finish T13. Ancer will have no problem finding the fairways at TPC Sawgrass, as he ranks first in driving accuracy this year.

Event Plays

Special Offer: Bet $4, Win $250 if Bryson DeChambeau Makes the Top 5 >>


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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.