The Preakness Stakes Betting Guide, Odds & Picks (2021)
The Kentucky Derby has come and gone, and it’s now time to set our sights on The Preakness. I’ll be utilizing reliable factors to weigh my selections, Pace versus Running Styles, Jockeys & Trainers (including their Connections), and of course, Pedigree.
Post Position, Horses/Odds, & [Trainers/Jockeys]
- Ram 30/1
D. Wayne Lukas/Ricardo Santana, Jr. - Keepmeinmind 15/1
Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen - Medina Spirit 9/5
Bob Baffert/John Velazquez - Crowded Trade 10/1
Chad Brown/Javier Castellano - Midnight Bourbon 5/1
Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz, Jr. - Rombauer 12/1
Michael McCarthy/Flavien Prat - France Go De Ina 20/1
Hideyuki Mori/Joel Rosario - Unbridled Honor 6/1
Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez - Risk Taking 15/1
Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz - Concert Tour 5/2
Bob Baffert/Mike Smith
Likely Winners & Why
[#3] Medina Spirit
Everyone had a feeling this horse was positioned to upset in the Kentucky Derby as John Velazquez pairing up with Bob Baffert was the same winning combination from 2020. That being said, John’s profitable 22% win rate this year on horses with early speed is confidence enough to bet this horse. It is a requirement of successful betting that this horse be at the top of all of your tickets. He will command the lead early and it’s really his race to lose in the stretch.
[#10] Concert Tour
Bob Baffert’s other horse in this race will be playing defense for Medina Spirit as his near-equal in terms of pace, with no-so-hot of late Mike Smith aboard. Yes, he did bring the crown home on the back of Justify in 2018, but in my opinion Medina Spirit still has the slight edge here with Velazquez.
[#9] Risk Taking
A race day longshot that has some interesting factors we just can’t ignore. Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz have been doing great things together this year, and Risk Taking has strong breeding elements for this distance/surface. If we just disregard the bobble at the start of his last race then his upside potential in the Preakness seems far greater. I see him keeping off the lead early with a nod to close strongly in the final furlong of the race.
Unexpected Contenders
[#2] Keepmeinmind
This horse will need to be at its best to hit the board, but not without warrant as the physical requirements to accomplish such a feat is applicable when compared to other horses in this field. This horse should be positioned well off the lead early on, making a strong bid in the stretch in an attempted upset. The weakest link here is David Cohen, the horse’s jockey, who has been riding this horse for a while now in a variety of scenarios and just can’t seem to break better than 5th in three races so far this year.
[#5] Midnight Bourbon
Many disappointed fans who cheered for this horse in the Kentucky Derby will be looking for revenge in the Preakness. There will be plenty of money thrown at Midnight Bourbon, but he just isn’t as good on paper as Medina Spirit and Concert Tour. The change of jockey is interesting because this horse does have some capability to set the pace, and Ortiz is exceptionally complimenting in that regard. Asmussen doesn’t sleep when it comes to prep, so this horse is kind of a no-brainer in terms of needing to be on your tickets — lots of good things, but only a few great things about him.
Ticket Structure
Top of my tickets
- [#3] Medina Spirit
- [#10] Concert Tour
- [#9] Risk Taking
Middle of my tickets
- [#5] Midnight Bourbon
- [#2] Keepmeinmind
Check out our guide to betting on horse racing here >>
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Spencer Weston is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @WestonPicks.