Thor Nystrom’s Michigan Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of the Michigan Wolverines. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Michigan Preview & Win Total Bets
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Michigan Wolverines
Returning Starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
I see Michigan as the biggest threat to end Georgia's run as champions. The Wolverines' offense has improved its offensive PPG and YPG each of the last two seasons, and will probably do so again. The offensive line might be the nation's best... again. Last season, the Wolverines became the first program to ever win back-to-back Joe Moore Awards. Recently, Senior Bowl czar Jim Nagy tweeted that the 2023 Michigan offensive line has seven different prospects on the Senior Bowl's watch list - meaning two NFL-caliber linemen will be backups. Running behind that line is Blake Corum-Donovan Edwards, the best backfield duo in the country. QB JJ McCarthy is a legitimate NFL prospect. The offense needs to replace WR Ronnie Bell and TE Luke Schoonmaker's production. If there's one question area, it's the pass-catchers, but, if nothing else, the Wolverines have plenty of former top recruits stocked up.
Michigan finished top-5 in total defense last fall and very well may again. Up front, the Wolverines lost DT Mazi Smith and EDGE Mike Morris. But DT Kris Jenkins is one of the nation's best, and former Coastal Carolina sack artist Josaiah Stewart's addition is going to improve the pass-rush. The linebacking corps is ridiculous. All three starters return, and the Wolverines added future star LB Ernest Hausmann, who started as a true frosh for Nebraska last year. The secondary must replace DJ Turner, but three starters return and longtime UMass starting CB Josh Wallace was imported to help plug the hole.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 11.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
Thor's Bet: Over
A creampuff non-con, a conference crossover draw that ducks both Wisconsin and Iowa, and a home date against hated Ohio State? What's not to love with one of the nation's best, most-experienced rosters playing for one of its best coaching staffs? We think Michigan makes the CFP for the third-straight year, this time reaching the national title game.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| East Carolina | Michigan | -38.6 | 1 |
| UNLV | Michigan | -42.9 | 1 |
| Bowling Green | Michigan | -47.7 | 1 |
| Rutgers | Michigan | -35.6 | 1 |
| Michigan | Nebraska | -19.8 | 0.998 |
| Michigan | Minnesota | -16.0 | 0.95 |
| Indiana | Michigan | -37.9 | 1 |
| Michigan | Michigan St. | -21.7 | 1 |
| Purdue | Michigan | -29.5 | 1 |
| Michigan | Penn St. | -3.8 | 0.62 |
| Michigan | Maryland | -17.5 | 0.98 |
| Ohio St. | Michigan | -3.0 | 0.57 |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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