ThriveFantasy Best Bets for March 3rd, 2020

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pays a 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount. 

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

To identify whether to select the over or the under we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries, and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.

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DeMar DeRozan 22.5 points (o 95/u 105)

• Averaging 22.4 points per game on the season
• Averaging 23.8 points per game on the road this season
• Averaged 20.6 points per game in nine February contests
• Recorded 24 points in only game vs Charlotte this season
• Under in five of last six contests 
• Under in six of last 12 contests 

DeMar DeRozan has cooled off considerably from when we were chasing him in our NBA Play of the Day’s here at BettingPros. He is still having a strong season but is no longer an elite over play. He is averaging 22.4 points per game on the season but managed just 20.4 per contest in his nine February games. DeMar has been better on the road this season (23.8 points per game), as he shoulders more of the load like most star players do, but his recent trends suggest that the under is the safer play here. He has fallen under 22.5 points in five of his last six contests. With that being said, if we extend our sample, he has hit the over in six of his last 12 games. He put up 24 points against Charlotte earlier this season and is a good bet to hit the over in this contest despite the concerning trends. He will need to be aggressive in getting to the line to hit the over, as he has been much too passive in his recent contests. Charlotte boasts the 12th best scoring defense, but the 10th worst percentage-based defense, as they allow opponents to shoot .499 from the field. The juice is on the over at the books and here at ThriveFantasy, which suggests that there is indeed value in the over. Punch in DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 at ThriveFantasy for 95 points.

Pick: DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points (95 points)

Jayson Tatum 30.5 points + rebounds (o 100/u 100)

• Averaging 30.6 combined points + rebounds (23.5 points + 7.1 rebounds) on the season 
• Averaging 30.6 combined at home this season
• Averaged 38.6 combined in 12 February contests
• Averaging 42.8 combined in five contests since the all-star break
• Averaging 30 combined in two contests vs Brooklyn this season
• Over in nine of last 10 contests
• Over in last five contests 

Jayson Tatum is finally showing the world the upside many knew he had when he was in the conversation as the best player in the 2017 NBA Draft. He is dealing with an illness and is questionable for tonight’s contest, but as one of the best props on the board at ThriveFantasy, it is suggested that you punch this one in and find a good ice pick as your backup plan. As we can see from the key stats and trends, the over is the easy play. If Tatum was on the board at sportsbooks he would likely be listed somewhere closer to 34.5. He has hit the over each of his last five contests and has gone over 30.5 points + rebounds in nine of his last 10. In fact, he has gone over in points alone in six of those contests. 

Tatum averaged an elite 38.6 combined points + rebounds in his 12 February contests (30.7 points and 7.9 rebounds), and bumped it up to 34 points and 8.8 rebounds since the All-Star break. Tatum has faced Brooklyn twice this season. He put up 16 points and nine rebounds on .294 shooting in the first meeting, but bounced back in a major way just two days later by recording 26 points and nine rebounds. Brooklyn boasts the 13th worst scoring defense, which makes them a defense to target on player props. Their percentage-based defense ranks as the ninth-best in the league, but that is not saying much when that percentage is .483. Tatum is an elite play if healthy, so punch this one in. 

Pick: Jayson Tatum over 30.5 points + rebounds (100 points)

Pascal Siakam 31.5 points + assists + rebounds (o 85/u 115)

• Averaging 34.5 combined points + assists + rebounds on the season (23.5 points + 7.5 rebounds + 3.5 assists)
• Averaging 32.4 combined on the road this season
• Averaged 33.9 combined in 10 February contests
• Averaging 34.8 combined in five contests since the all-star break
• Recorded 37 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists versus Phoenix on February 21st (52 combined)
• Under in three of last five contests
• Under in six of last 10 contests 

Pascal Siakam continues to emerge as an All-Star type of talent, but he has a long way to go consistency wise before he enters the superstar conversation. Siakam has gone under 31.5 points + assists + rebounds in three of his last five contests, and in six of his last 10 overall. He is averaging a solid combined 34.5 points, assists, and rebounds on the season, but unlike most star players, his numbers dip on the road to 32.4 combined. He is a peak and valley player, especially when it comes to field goal percentage, so it is a good thing he is facing a Phoenix Suns team that boasts the 11th worst percentage-based defense (.498), and the 11th worth scoring defense. Cementing the over as the play is the fact that Siakam put up a monster line of 37 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists against Phoenix less than two weeks ago. Punch in Siakam over as one of the top plays at ThriveFantasy.

Pick: Pascal Siakam over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds (85 points)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.