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ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for February 11th, 2020

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ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pays a 11 times multiplier. In these contests you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.

Sign Up on ThriveFantasy and Use Promo Code “BPROS” for a $5 FREE Credit!

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

To identify whether to select the over or the under we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries, and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.

Kawhi Leonard 25.5 points (o 95/u 105)

  • Averaging 27.1 points per game on the season
  • Averaging 28.9 points per game on the road
  • Averaging 24 points per game in four February contests
  • Cleared total in 10 of last 12 contests
  • Under in two of last three

Kawhi Leonard is shooting the lowest field goal percentage of his career this season, but has still averaged 27.1 points per game this season. He steps it up on the road where he knows he needs to do more, and averages 28.9 points per game when not playing from the home locker room. While he has gone under 26 points in two of his last three contests, he has scored 26 or more in 10 of his last 12 contests. Philadelphia has a tougher defense than most of the league, but Kawhi, albeit on a different team, averaged 30.3 points per game against the 76ers last season (excluding postseason play). He averaged 34.7 points against them in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals. He did that against Jimmy Butler. Kawhi is a good bet to hit at least 26 points in tonight’s contest.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard over 25.5 points (95 points)

Zach Lavine over 35.5 points + assists (o 110/u 95)

  • Cleared total in one of two games against Washington this season
  • Cleared total in just 13 of 54 games this season
  • Cleared total in seven of 20 games since January. 
  • Averaging 25 points and 4.1 assists on the season (29.9 total)
  • Averaging 26.6 points and 4.6 assists on the season (31.2 total)

This would be an automatic under play against most opponents. The Washington Wizards are not one of them. The Wizards allow league high 120 points per game, and also find themselves allowing a league high .525 shooting percentage. LaVine has cleared this total in one of his two contests against the Washington Wizards this season. He had 30 points and seven assists in their last meeting. He fell under with just 24 points and five assists in the first meeting, due primarily to shooting 26.1 percent (6/23). He averaged 22 shot attempts in those contests, and should have the green light to put up over 20 again. The total for this prop was set this high for a reason. Punch in the over at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Zach LaVine over 35.5 points + assists (110 points)

Damian Lillard 32.5 points (o 95/u 105)

  • Scored 18 points and seven assists against New Orleans 
  • Averaging 29.9 points per game on the season
  • Averaging 26.4 points per game on the road this season
  • Averaging 34.225 points per game since start of 2020
  • Cleared total in 19 of 52 contests this season
  • Cleared total in last two contests
  • Cleared total in 10 of last 12 contests

Damian Lillard has cooled off from his 48 point per game stretch of seven games, but is still playing at an extremely high level. He has hit 33 points in 10 of his last 12 contests, and shows no signs of cooling off. He did fall under the number in two straight contests to officially end his record pace, but has  scored 33 or more in each of his last two. He has averaged 34.2 points per game in 2020 overall, and sits at 34.6 in his five February contests. It is still hard to bet against Lillard continuing to light up the scoreboard, as New Orleans has allowed the third most points per game against, and at .501, allow the seventh highest points per game in the league. The juice is on the over at ThriveFantasy as well as most sportsbooks for good reason, roll with Lillard and the over for tonight’s contests at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Damian Lillard over 32.5 points (95 points)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 22.5 points + assists (o 90/u 110)

  • Averaging 23 points and four assists against the Spurs this season
  • Averaging 19.6 assists and 3.2 assists on the season
  • Cleared in both contests against the Spurs this season
  • Cleared in two of last three contests
  • Under in six of last 10 contests

Canadian point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the brightest young talents in the NBA. His fluctuating assists make this a tougher prop to find a lean on, but his head to head stats against San Antonio make it more definitive. He has gone over in both of his contests against the Spurs this season. He recorded 25 points and five assists in his last contest against the Spurs, and 21 points and three assists in their first meeting this season. The Spurs have been a team to target as far as player props are concerned as they have allowed the eighth most points per game at 114.7 per contest. They have the fourth worst field goal percentage against, as they allow their opponents to shoot .503 from the field. With this line set at 23.5 at some sportsbooks, SGA over is the easy pick.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 22.5 points and assists (90 points)

Jayson Tatum 22.5 points (o 105/ u 95)

  • Averaging 22.2 points per game on the season
  • Averaging 21.3 points per game on the road this season
  • Averaging 28.8 in five February contests
  • Cleared in five straight contests
  • Cleared in eight of last nine contests

This prop was a lot more attractive when Jaylen Brown was considered questionable for tonight’s contest. Brown is now expected to play after telling reporters he would do just that, but the over is still the lean for this player prop. Tatum has been on fire lately, and has cleared the posted total in five straight contests, and in eight of his last nine contests. Facing Houston is generally an automatic over play for player props, and tonight is no different. Robert Covington may make it more difficult than usual for Tatum to reach this total, but betting against him hitting 23 points has a lower win probability. Tatum over is the play.
Pick: Jayson Tatum over 22.5 points (105 points)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.