ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for February 25th, 2020

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Make two correct selections, and you earn a 3.6x multiplier. If you make three correct predictions, you’ll win a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks will give you an 11x multiplier. You’re competing against yourself in these contests, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount. 

The Contest Lobby is where things get interesting. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will need to make two additional picks to ensure fairness, just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

To identify whether to select the over or the under, we’ll look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.

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Terry Rozier 15.5 points (Over 95/Under 105)

• Averaging 17.7 points per game on the season
• Averaging 17.7 points per game in three contests vs. Pacers this season
• Averaging 17.5 points per game on the road this season
• Averaging 14 points per game in seven February contests
• Under 15.5 points in four straight contests 
• Under in four of his last six contests
• Under in six of his last 10 contests

Terry Rozier is in the midst of a career season, one that will likely go down as the high-water mark of his tenure in the NBA. While he is averaging 17.7 points per game on the season, and the same amount in his three contests against the Pacers this season, this prop is still a 50/50 bet at best. Rozier has cleared 15.5 points twice against Indiana this season, scoring 28 points on January 6th, three points on December 15th (on a .083 shooting percentage — yikes!), and 22 points on November 22nd.

Rozier has been a little cold recently, and he has averaged just 14 points per game in seven February contests. He has gone under in four straight contests and has failed to hit this total in six of his last 10 games overall. Indiana has one of the tougher defenses in the league, but his success against them this season gives some reason for optimism. The Hornets do not have much else in terms of scoring punch, but the Pacers’ eighth-ranked defense percentage-wise (.449) and seventh-ranked defense scoring-wise (107.8 PPG against) has held Rozier to just three points on 12 shots. That accentuates the bottomless floor that he has against a team like the Pacers. This line sits at 16.5 at the books, with the juice heavily on the under (-122). While 16.5 would indeed be a better number, this is still a toss-up, so we’ll follow the trends and tap the under for 105 points at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Terry Rozier over 15.5 points (105 points)

Brook Lopez 2.5 blocks (Over 115/Under 85)

• Averaging 2.5 blocks per game on the season
• Averaging 2.5 blocks per game on the road this season 
• Averaging 2.5 blocks per game in eight February contests 
• Under in two straight contests 
• Under in three of his last five contests
• Under in six of his last 10 contests
• Under in five of his last nine contests against the Raptors in 2018-19 (including the playoffs)
• Recorded one block against the Raptors in his lone game against them this season

Brook Lopez is officially questionable for tonight’s contest but should play. He is averaging 2.5 blocks per game on the season as a whole, and he has 2.5 blocks per both on the road and at home. His recent game data is full of some monster block parties, but he has gone under 2.5 in two straight contests, and six of his last 10.

The Raptors and Bucks have squared off just once so far this season, and Lopez managed only one swat in that contest. That said, they faced each other a total of nine times last season (including the playoffs), and while the Toronto Raptors were a very different team, it still gives us a strong sample of data to analyze. In those nine games, Lopez went under in five contests. There are no lines to compare this to in the books, as Lopez’s status has kept him the board, and any load restrictions have yet to be announced. Brook Lopez has a 40.32 percent block share of the Bucks 6.2 blocks per game, a number that translates to a projected 2.09 blocks versus the Raptors (who allow 5.2 blocks against on the season). Lopez under is the play at ThriveFantasy for 85 points.
Pick: Brook Lopez over 2.5 blocks (85 points)

Pascal Siakam 30.5 points + rebounds (Over 100/Under 100)

• Averaging 31.2 combined points + rebounds on the season (23.7 points, 7.5 rebounds)
• Averaging 32.8 combined points + rebounds at home this season (24.5 points, 8.3 rebounds)
• Averaging 30.2 combined in eight February contests (23.1 points, 7.1 rebounds)
• Under in three of his last four contests 
• Under in six of his last 10 contests 
• Recorded 21 combined points + rebounds vs. Bucks earlier this season (16 points, five rebounds)

As a Toronto native, I am a huge Pascal Siakam fan who always believes in him more than his current game (and its inconsistent nature) warrants. Siakam has averaged 31.2 combined points and rebounds on the season. At home, that looks like 32.8 points and rebounds. However, he has dipped just under 30.5 combined points and rebounds in his eight February contests. He has gone under in three of his last four but is a nightly threat to easily eclipse this number.

As such, evaluating his opponent is necessary to predict his performance. Siakam scored 16 points and grabbed five boards against the Bucks earlier this season. Milwaukee has the number one percentage-based defense (.413) and the number eight scoring defense, which could once again spell trouble for someone as up and down as Siakam. He will take enough shots to clear this total, but he will need to hit them at a high enough clip and have a good game on the glass to clear this total. The juice is heavily on the under 31.5 combined at the books (-120), and based on the above analysis, that checks out. The 30.5 number boasts a slightly higher level of risk, but it’s still the smarter play based on the opponent.
Pick: Pascal Siakam under 30.5 points + rebounds (100 points)

Jayson Tatum 36.5 points + rebounds + assists (Over 100/Under 100)

• Averaging 32.8 combined on the season (22.9 points, seven rebounds, 2.9 assists)
• Averaging 32.1 combined on the road this season (22.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists)
• Averaging 40.3 combined in nine February contests (29.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists)
• Over in three straight contests
• Over in seven of last 10 contests

Jayson Tatum is finally getting treated as the most talented player on the Celtics roster, and he has responded with a monster month. He has averaged 29.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in his nine February contests (40.3 combined), and he is finally starting to show a consistent level of confidence and dominance. His season averages both as a whole and on the road both fall under the posted total, as he has 32.8 combined points and rebounds per game on the season, and 32.1 on the road.

As mentioned, however, he has been on fire lately. He has gone over the posted total in three straight contests — and in seven of his last 10 . This is an easy play, and it’s the type of prop that I would feature in my NBA Play of the Day prop bets section. Despite the Blazers boasting the number nine percentage-based defense, they have the fifth-worst scoring defense with 115.3 points allowed per game. The juice is on the over at the books (-118) for a good reason. Lock in Jayson Tatum over 36.5 points, assists, and rebounds at ThriveFantasy for 100 points.
Pick: Jayson Tatum over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds (100 points)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.