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Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Patriots (Week 13)

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The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills last faced off in last season’s playoffs, and it ended up being one of their most memorable games in recent memory—but not for the right reasons. When the Patriots meet the Bills on Thursday night in Foxborough, Massachusetts, they will finally get the opportunity to exact revenge for their loss to Buffalo in the AFC wild-card game back in January.

Will this one fare differently? Let’s take a closer look.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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NFL Week 13 Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Bills vs. Patriots)

Details

  • Opening Line: Patriots +5.5 | O/U 45
  • Current Line: Patriots +4 | O/U 43.5
  • Last meeting: January 15, 2022 – New England 17, Buffalo 47

Overview

In the 47-17 loss to Buffalo in the playoffs last season, New England never figured out how to stop the Bills’ explosive offense, allowing seven touchdowns on all seven of their possessions. The lone stop the Patriots could generate came at the game’s conclusion when Mitch Trubisky, the backup quarterback, knelt to shave seconds off the clock.

On that particular day, Josh Allen passed for 308 yards and five passing touchdowns compared with just four incomplete passes.

The Patriots will play their third game in 12 days including their meeting with the Bills, capping a busy period of their schedule. Nov. 20th saw New England defeat the New York Jets 10-3, but Thanksgiving Day saw them lose 33-26 to the Minnesota Vikings. Additionally, it will be the first time in the history of the organization that the Patriots play two Thursday games back-to-back.

Buffalo has also had a busy two weeks, having had its game against the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 20 shifted to Detroit due to a record snowfall and then having to play the Lions just four days later, again in Detroit, owing to the same snowfall.

The Bills are currently tied with the Miami Dolphins for first place in the AFC East after winning both games. However, as they face a crucial three-game stretch, their hold on the division may be in threat. Over the following three weeks, Buffalo will play the other three members of the division, starting with New England before hosting the Jets and Dolphins at home.

Buffalo might be without linebacker Von Miller for the gauntlet’s opening game after he missed practice on Tuesday due to a knee ailment. Quintin Morris, a tight end, and offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, who was out with an ankle injury, were also absent.

Bottom Line

For me, this one comes down to the Patriots’ injuries, however, and there are a lot. Running back Damien Harris (thigh), safety Jabrill Peppers (illness), and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn (foot) have missed extended time this week, as has center David Andrews (thigh), receiver Jakobi Meyers (shoulder), and cornerback Jalen Mills (groin).

While I don’t expect it as dramatic as a result of last time, I think the short week lends to the Bills getting this one done (and covering) once again.

Pick: Bills -4

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.