Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Steelers vs. Browns)
In Week 3 of our Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions, we get to preview another division rivalry, the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Cleveland Browns.
Last season, the Steelers won the season series 2-0. These matchups were not high-scoring affairs as the teams combined for 25 and 40 points, respectively, in each game. The Browns’ offense struggled the most, scoring only 24 points in the two contests. However, there will be two new quarterbacks leading these offenses as Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett will be getting the start on Thursday night.
Another key development is the potential for high winds in Cleveland. This could complicate things for each offense even further, as they have already struggled historically in this matchup. Does this mean we should fade the overs on Thursday Night Football? Let’s find out!
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: (Chargers vs. Chiefs)
- Player: Mitch Trubisky
- Player Prop: Passing TDs 1.5 (-285)
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, Mitch Trubisky hasn’t necessarily lit the world on fire in the passing game. Currently, he is averaging 181 passing yards and one TD per game. This week it would appear the arrow is pointing way up on Trubisky as the Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns. The Browns just allowed 307 yards and four TDs to Joe Flacco. However, before running to grab all the Mitch Trubisky overs, we should look at the history of this rivalry. Over the past three seasons, the Steelers as a team have failed to throw for more than one TD in five of seven games vs. the Browns. Like last week’s Justin Herbert TD over-pick, this bet seems too good to pass up. Since the odds are not great at -285, it might make sense to parlay this bet with a Sunday player prop to get better odds.
- Player: Jacoby Brissett
- Player Prop: Passing Yards 182.5 (-115)
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Jacoby Brissett was one Joe Flacco comeback away from having the Cleveland Browns at 2-0. Instead, the Browns will be 1-1 as they face off vs. their division rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers’ pass defense will be a much tougher test for Brissett. On the surface, it hasn’t looked strong, allowing the third most passing yards through Week 2. When you dive deeper, those stats are inflated as they have faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL. This, in turn, drops them to 21st in yards per attempt allowed so far this season. In the two years under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have struggled vs. the Steelers through the air, failing to hit 200 yards in three of four games. As we touched on earlier, this game is expected to see high winds in the 20+ MPH range, which pushes us to take the under on Brissett.
- Player: Kareem Hunt
- Player Prop: 16.5 receiving yards (-120)
Recommendation: Bet the Over
Through the first two games with Jacoby Brissett, Kareem Hunt has stayed somewhat involved in the passing game going for 4-24 vs. the Panthers and 2-16 vs. the Jets. The 4-24 receiving line vs. Carolina doesn’t jump out at you right away, but once you factor in that Saquon Barkley only caught 3-16 the following week, it makes it much more impressive. This week Hunt will take on the Steelers defense that has allowed the sixth most receptions and the fourth most yards to running backs through Week 2. Some of this could be attributed to the higher pass volume, but the Bengals running backs saw a 24% target share in their Week 1 game vs. Pittsburgh. In Week 2, the Patriots running backs didn’t have as much success. Still, Hunt’s 49% routes run to drop-back percentage is closer to Joe Mixon’s 56% vs. the average 33% of the Patriots running backs (Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson) have run this season. We should expect each team to struggle to throw the ball downfield, which should lead to some more check downs for Hunt.
- Player: Chase Claypool
- Player Prop: 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Recommendation: Bet the Under
With the emergence of second-round pick George Pickens, Chase Claypool has settled into the big slot role in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. This season Claypool has run 87% of his routes and has seen 10 of his 11 targets in the slot. Playing in the slot has led to some consistent targets for Claypool as he has seen six targets in each game while securing four receptions in both contents. While the consistent targets are nice, the production hasn’t really been there from a receiving yards standpoint. Through Week 2, Claypool has averaged just 22 yards a game. The issue is that the new role has led to a seriously low ADOT of just 5.7 yards. This is between 6-8 yards lower than his career norms. This week’s opponent, the Browns, has been solid vs. the slot allowing the second-fewest fantasy points and the third-fewest percentage of fantasy points to the slot this season. This is why betting the under on Claypool makes sense for Week 3.
- Player: Nick Chubb
- Player Prop: 84.5 rushing yards (-115)
Recommendation: Bet the Under
Nick Chubb has come out of the gates hot in 2022. Currently, Chubb is second in the NFL in rushing yards and is the only running back with three rushing TDs so far this season. The Steelers defense will be a big test for Chubb after two softer matchups vs. the Jets and Panthers. The Steelers are tied for 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and have held down Chubb in the past. During the Stefanski era, Chubb has failed to hit 85 yards rushing in three of four games vs. the Steelers. We would think that the Browns would lean on Chubb, but since the Browns offense has struggled historically vs. the Steelers, Chubb has averaged just 15 carries a game in those four games. With high winds and the lowest over/under on the week of just 38 points, we shouldn’t expect too much production from either offense on Thursday night. This leads us to take the under on Chubb’s rushing yards in Week 3.
Season Long Betting Tracker 7-3
Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday
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