Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Browns (2022)
Here is my breakdown for Steelers vs. Browns along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Steelers at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Steelers at Browns: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Browns -4.5
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Moneyline: Browns -200, Steelers +165
Steelers at Browns: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Browns – 24% bets, 26% money
- Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 15% bets, 22% money
Steelers at Browns: Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Devin Bush | ILB | Foot | LP | FP | FP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | FS | Lower Leg Cramps | NA | NA | LP |
Pittsburgh Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR): OUT
- S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
- S Karl Joseph (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT
Cleveland Browns: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP |
| Harrison Bryant | TE | Thumb, Thigh | DNP | LP | FP |
| Isaiah Thomas | DE | Hand | FP | FP | FP |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Biceps | DNP | DNP | LP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Knee | LP | LP | LP |
| Chris Hubbard | OT | Illness | DNP | LP | LP |
Cleveland Browns: IR, PUP & Out
- QB DeShaun Watson (suspension): OUT
- EDGE Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR): OUT
- CB Greedy Williams (hamstring, IR): OUT
- C Nick Harris (knee, IR): OUT
- WR Jakeem Grant (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR): OUT
- TE Jesse James (biceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle): OUT
Steelers at Browns: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 46-23-3 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 38-34 ML (34.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 51-37-3 ATS (13.4% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin: 63-27-1 ML (16.9% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin: 20-6-2 ATS (44.9% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 16-12 ML (42.2% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 4-0 ATS (89.9% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
- HC Mike Tomlin: 3-1 ML (62.5% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
Cleveland Browns Trends
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 7-15 ATS (31.1% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 1-11 ATS (74.6% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-7 ATS (89.1% ROI for faders) as divisional favorite
Steelers at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total SR | 38.7% | 29 | 40.2% | 7 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.051 | 23 | 0.019 | 18 | -5 |
| Total SR | 40.2% | 30 | 42.0% | 6 | -24 |
| Total DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -2.5% | 11 | -14 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.178 | 5 | -0.062 | 6 | 1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 10 | 42.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 29.0% | 4 | -10.5% | 8 | 4 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 18 | 0.006 | 16 | -2 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 21 | 43.5% | 12 | -9 |
| Total DVOA | 4.2% | 14 | -0.6% | 14 | 0 |
Steelers at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: -0.011 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 5.0 (No. 27)
- QBR: 38.4 (No. 24)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.2 (No. 16)
2021: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: N/A
- AY/A: N/A
- QBR: N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -17.2
2022: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.153 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.1 (No. 23)
- QBR: 59.3 (No. 12)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.9 (No. 26)
2021: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
- AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
- QBR: 48.2 (No. 22, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.9 (No. 39)
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -34.7
Key Matchup: Steelers Offensive Line vs. Browns Defensive Line
I know that the Steelers offense is supposedly bad and the Browns defense is presumably good. But based on how they’ve performed so far in 2022 they seem fairly even.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.117 | 24 | 0.225 | 28 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.2% | 22 | 15.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 15 | 7.7% | 16 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.066 | 16 | -0.05 | 16 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.0% | 20 | -2.6% | 20 | 0 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.88 | 23 | 4.68 | 19 | -4 |
We have the Steelers offensive line at No. 30 in our FantasyPros unit power rankings. It’s not good — but it has been decent enough to allow the offense as a whole to put up league-average numbers, and the Browns defense has been middling to date.
All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett could have a big day against LT Dan Moore — but maybe he won’t. Moore this year has allowed just one pressure and quarterback hit on 77 pass rush opportunities (per PFF), and Garrett will have little support, given that fellow EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) are all out with injuries.
On top of that, Garrett (neck) is dealing with a spine issue of his own.
If the Steelers provide Moore with help against Garrett, they could keep QB Mitchell Trubisky clean in the pocket — and an unpressured Trubisky might just be good enough to cover.
Especially against this guy.
This line was +3 in the lookahead market, so +4.5 feels like too much.
Best Line: Steelers +4.5 (-110, BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars, probably DK and FD)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +1
Limit: Steelers +3
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