Thursday’s Best Bets: NBA, MLB & NHL Picks (4/6)

by BettingPros Staff |
Apr 06, 2023

No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best NBA bets.

NBA Best Bets

NBA Game Picks

Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs

This game essentially doesn't matter. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and there is no draft position jockeying to be done. I understand any/all reluctance in betting on this game... but for a Thursday slate so heavily hijacked by injury uncertainty, we find an edge wherever we can.

The Blazers (as currently constructed) may as well be an NBA G League team. Their injury report is extensive and includes their top eight rotation players (per 538 Raptor Ratings). A bet on Portland is a bet on the likes of Drew Eubanks, Kevin Knox, and Jabari Walker- Personally, that isn't a bet I want to make.

Admittedly, the Spurs' current makeup is not much better. The team will be without some of their best players in Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, but their roster hasn't quite been depleted to the extent of Portland's. Furthermore, the edge provided via home-court advantage and by having one of the NBA's greatest coaches on their side make's San Antonio a sensible pick.

Bet: Spurs -2 (-110)

Tommy Jurgens

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MLB Best Bets

San Diego Padres (+142) vs. Atlanta Braves (-168) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)

It has been a fantastic start to the season for the Braves, winning five of their first six. Like last season, they present a top-tier lineup and pitching staff and are top six in ERA and runs scored.

Spencer Strider is proving to be a star in the making by finishing last season second in Rookie of the Year voting and started this season pitching six scoreless and striking out nine.

After another busy offseason for the Padres, but it hasn't begun the way they hoped, as they are currently 3-3. The Xander Bogaerts signing is paying off as he hits .409 with three home runs, but most of their other bats aren't, including Juan Soto and James Cronenworth, who are hitting .190.

Blake Snell had a rough first start. He got into trouble almost every inning against Colorado, and finally in the fifth, he gave up the big hits and took the loss.

The Braves are playing better overall, and they've got the better guy on the mound that can get the swings and misses against a lineup that is struggling.

Pick: Braves -1.5 (+122)

John Supowitz

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NHL Best Bets

Philadelphia Flyers (+205) @ Dallas Stars (-250) | O/U 6 (-112/-109)

The Central Division’s Dallas Stars host the Metropolitan Division’s Philadelphia Flyers in this Thursday night tilt. Historically, the Under is extremely profitable when these two clubs meet, with six or fewer total goals scored in 17 of the last 20 matchups.

Over its last six games, Philadelphia is averaging just 2.8 goals scored. This inefficient offense is not surprising, given the Flyers' offensive metrics.

At 5-on-5, they rank just 24th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). The defense is not much better, but Philadelphia ranks much closer to league average in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Backing up this club is goaltender Carter Hart, who is currently questionable with a lower-body injury. However, Hart is traveling with the team for this contest, which makes me believe he will make his first start since his shutout performance against the Detroit Red Wings on March 25.

Putting together a string of incredible performances prior to the injury, Hart is 4-0 with a .933 save percentage (SV%) and 2.20 goals against average (GAA) over his past four starts.

His underlying metrics are just as strong this season. Among starting goaltenders, Hart ranks 12th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Jake Oettinger is slated to get the nod for Dallas. Through 58 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 33-11-11 with a .917 SV% and 2.47 GAA.

Entering this matchup in particularly good form, he is 3-1 with a .926 SV% and 2.03 GAA over his past four starts. In front of Oettinger is one of the better two-way teams in the Western Conference.

Boasting a strong blue that is spearheaded by one of the best defensemen in the league in Miro Heiskanen, the Stars rank ninth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. However, while the offense is good, it sits right at league average in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Best Bet: Under 6 (-109)

Tony Sartori

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