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Titans vs. Colts NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)

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Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Titans vs. Colts.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 6 Betting Primer>>

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 15 of the Colts' last 17 games.
  • The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and 66% ATS as an underdog (1-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last nine games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Titans are 5-6 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games at Nissan Stadium.

Totals:

  • Six of the last eight Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • The Titans are 13-7-1 toward the under in their last 20 games.

Overall:

Anthony Richardson is trending in the right direction to get a start this week after missing last week with an injury. He is off the injury report entirely. But the Colts aren't out of the injury woods just yet. Michael Pittman Jr. will miss the next few weeks with a back injury. Jonathan Taylor also looks like he will miss his second straight game with a high ankle sprain. Josh Downs is dealing with a toe injury. They lost another starting offensive lineman – Will Fries – last week.

Meanwhile, the Titans are presumably very healthy and well-rested coming off a bye week.

We know the Titans historically play much better at home than on the road, and the Colts are a tough bet to place as underdogs (like last week).

In another AFC South road matchup, with Indy catching points, I think we might see a repeat of last week’s outcome.

The Titans defense is vastly superior to the Jaguars. They can stop run – league-high run stuff rate of 25.7% – and limit passing production. Top-five in EPA/pass attempt and yards per pass attempt faced.

I envision this Colts offense struggling.

But I don't think the Titans offense will struggle. Tennessee's run game has been very boom-or-bust. No team has lower rushing yards allowed before contact than Tennessee. That leads to a lot of negative runs or no gains. But when they get through that first line of contact, it's off to the races. Indy ranks fourth in most rushes of 10-plus yards allowed this season.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both explosive rushers who can take advantage in this matchup.

I also think Will Levis will be able to throw on this secondary. They rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed and have allowed the second-most passing yards per game to the perimeter. Tennessee's defense, meanwhile, ranks first in that category.

Give me the Titans to win at home. Given the projected struggles for the Colts’ offense, I also lean toward the under at 43.5.

Props:

Tennessee has been great against the deep ball this season. Per Next Gen Stats, The Titans’ defense has allowed a league-low nine completions of 10+ air yards this season, generating a defensive success rate of 37.5% on such attempts, the fourth-highest in the NFL.

Mentioned already how bad the Colts are against perimeter WRs. The Calvin Ridley "boom" game is coming. Earlier this week, Bengals head coach Brian Callahan said to Ridley, "I need to find ways to get you the ball more." Pitch and catch, folks. The last five most comparable WRs to face the Colts this season have gone OVER their receptions totals per the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. The projections have Ridley for four receptions and 49.3 receiving yards, both well ahead of his line on the sportsbooks.

My Picks:

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