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Titans vs. Colts: NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Titans vs. Colts.

NFL Betting Primer: Titans vs. Colts

Indianapolis Colts (IND -1) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Colts are 1-point home favorites versus a Titans unit coming off a convincing Week 4 victory over the Bengals. Indy came up just short of victory last as favorites, losing in OT despite a late rally from rookie QB Anthony Richardson.

In terms of matchups, I don't love the spot for the Titans offense. Their OL is bad, and that has created issues for this team on the road, where they are 0-2 this season versus 2-0 at home and scoring 9 points per game versus 27 points per game. Ryan Tannehill is averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt at home while averaging close to five yards per attempt on the road.

The Titans offense is not good - 23rd on 3rd downs, 28th in red zone - and Colts' strengths on defense match up well against Tennessee's ability to run the football. And the Titans will continue to smash Henry into a brick wall whether it works or not. Per Arjun Menon on Twitter/X, the Colts boast the second-lowest defensive pass rate over expectation versus the run this season.

Meanwhile, I think that Richardson and the Colts offense can take advantage of a leaky Titans secondary, as they did last week versus the Rams. Tennessee ranks 5th-worst in adjusted net yards allowed per pass attempt and completion percentage faced.

Meanwhile, Richardson is coming off a 200-yard passing game where he completed just 11 passes on 25 attempts (a career-high 8 yards per attempt).

We saw Shane Steichen decimate this Titans secondary last year with Philly to the tune of nearly 400 passing yards. Don't think we see that type of exact output from the Colts offense, but make no mistake the Colts will know exactly how to effectively attack this defense.

Taking the Colts to get the win.

As for the total, I tend to lean toward the under. Tannehill is 10-6 toward the under as the team's starter dating back to last season. The Colts have been an over machine at 3-0 with Richardson as the team's starter, but those all came in games with opponents who had above-average offenses, in my estimation.

Tennessee isn't that kind of powerhouse to hold up their end offensively, especially on the road. They scored fewer than 20 points on the road in seven of their last nine road games. With Tannehill as the starter, it's been four of the last five under 20 points.

I like the game total under overall or would just back Indy's offense to go over their 21.5-point team total. The Colts have gone over their implied team total in every game this season.

On the player props side, I am doubling down on the Colts passing attack.  Anthony Richardson's passing prop is egregiously low, set at 204.5 passing yards. Again, he came just short of this number on 11 completions last week. His projection has him smashing this number to another orbit at 239 passing yards versus the pass funnel Titans.

https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1709283681255268751

Pair it with the over on Michael Pittman Jr.’s receiving line set at 56.5 receiving yards. Pittman has hit 56-plus yards in all his games besides last week, and I expect him to be peppered with targets as the No. 1 primary target option.

MPJ boasts a 28% target share through four games. His one catch last week after posting games with 8, 8, and 9 receptions stands out as a complete outlier. Also, t-shirt narrative.

I think the Derrick Henry rushing prop over 76.5 yards is probably how I would round out the 3-pick parlay on Prizepicks. Although I think the Colts run defense is underrated, that doesn't mean Henry won't get his if he is seeing 25-plus carries versus a defense that has faced nearly 34 carries per game this season. Don't love it in a vacuum, but it makes sense as a correlated play.

The same for DeAndre Hopkins OVER 54.5 receiving yards. Likely no Treylon Burks for another week, and Hopkins is not listed on the injury report at all. Colts are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and have allowed 6 different WRs to surpass 55 yards against them. With a 28% target share to boot, hard to see Hopkins missing this number with double-digit targets coming his way.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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