Titans vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Titans vs. Jaguars.
NFL Betting Primer: Titans vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Kids these days don't remember when this matchup was solely made for Thursday night football. Blake Bortles in color rush uniforms. Simply could not be beaten. However, I have an inkling that we will get a semblance of a Thursday night matchup, even with this game taking place on a Sunday afternoon.
The Jaguars are 66% ATS this season, tied for the best in the AFC. 5-1 ATS and straight up over their last six games. 4-1 ATS as a favorite.
Jacksonville is extremely strong versus the run: Top-5 in the fewest rushing yards per game. No. 4 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (63). Simply put, they can neutralize Derrick Henry and the Titans’ ground game. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t entertain the idea of a Henry over at 56.5 rushing yards, which just seems too low even with the tougher matchup. He’s failed to hit that number in just three games this season, and Jacksonville has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in two of the last three weeks.
The Jaguars' defense also doesn't allow many big plays - ranking inside the top-10 in the fewest overall explosive plays allowed per game.
The Titans are losers of 8 straight on the road. It's a team that tends to underperform on the road because bad offensive lines don't travel. The matchup is going to come down to how Will Levis can perform against a beatable Jaguars secondary, that was gashed by Brock Purdy a week ago.
But Levis couldn't complete a deep pass to save his life versus Tampa Bay. Completed just one of eight passes downfield of 20-plus air yards. And that was against a defense that entering Week 10 ranked last in the most explosive passing plays allowed per game. Woof. Again, aside from last week, the Jags had been a solid defense limiting explosive plays.
Likely settle on Jags -6.5, with Levis dropping to 1-2 ATS after a surprising start to his NFL career.
As for the total, 6 of the last 7 games have gone UNDER for Tennessee. Each of the Titans' last 7 road games has gone under the projected total (7-2 overall).
The average scoring of these two teams is 40 points.
Considering both defenses boast top-7 red-zone defenses - Titans (3rd), Jaguars (7th) - I think the under is the firm play here. The Titans' red-zone defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL on the road.
Here’s how to attack the props.
Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). The Jaguars’ defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense. The Jaguars are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs.
My Picks:
- Under 40.5
- Jaguars -6.5
My Props:
- Christian Kirk over 57.5 receiving yards
- DeAndre Hopkins over 56.5 receiving yards
- Will Levis over 212.5 passing yards
- Derrick Henry over 56.5 rushing yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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