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Titans vs. Patriots NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)

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Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Titans vs. Patriots.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Patriots have lost eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots, as road underdogs, are 40% ATS (6-9) and 44% ATS on the road in their last 19 road contests.
  • The Titans have lost six of their last seven games as favorites. They are 3-6 ATS as home favorites (33%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Titans are 5-7 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost 13 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-6-1 ATS (47%).

Totals:

  • Nine of the last 13 Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Four of the Patriots’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in six of eight games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 12-13 toward the under in its last 24 games and 3-5 this season.
  • The Titans are 13-10-1 toward the under in their last 24 games.

Overall:

If Jacoby Brissett is starting this game for the Patriots, I am not touching this game. I've seen enough of his dink and dunk game this year, and it's not conducive to winning. I understand Brissett did enough last week for the win, but that game was so much more about the Jets losing than vice versa. The Patriots’ defense is still horrible, and I'd expect the Titans to have success running the football at home against them. The passing game might even be able to do something as well.

The Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-highest EPA per dropback (0.1) this season.

Tennessee's defense has been good against the lackluster competition, so I'd hardly say this is a soft spot for the Patriots’ offense to take advantage. Tennessee has been truck-sticked by the Bills/Lions on the road in back-to-back weeks, so their defensive numbers don't look nearly as good.

Even so, the Titans rank in the top 10 in EPA/play allowed on defense, while the Patriots rank 26th. The Titans also rank first in rushing stuff rate.

I don't envision much scoring for the Patriots in this game unless Drake Maye plays. He has a chance, given his progression through the concussion protocol.

Remember that even in last week's victory, the Jets substantially outgained them.

I opened this week thinking I would back my Patriots on the road, but I am having second thoughts.

Mason Rudolph has given the Titans chances when he's played this season. He and Calvin Ridley were clicking against the Lions to open the game last week.

But we can't overlook the hot new trend sweeping the betting streets. Some are calling it the Lions hangover, while others are calling it the Honolulu Flu. Essentially, after teams play the Lions, they don't fair well the next week.

In 2024, teams are 0-6 straight up and ATS after playing Detroit (including Dallas off a bye week).

I see Tennessee with advantages on both sides of the ball, so I can't take the Patriots with Brissett as the potential starter. I would rather bet the under on the game total at 38.5. But if we get Maye (figures crossed), I'd flip toward the over and take my Patriots as road underdogs at +3.5.

Keep in mind that the Titans could be without their top two starting RBs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, slapping Julius Chestnut to get the start. This is not a ringing endorsement for the offense.

Stay tuned.

Props:

Rhamondre Stevenson. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Stevenson this season, as he is taking on the “Amari Cooper of RBs” mantra. Seven games played this season. Four top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5). Then three outside the top 40 overall. Woof. One RB the Titans have faced this season has rushed for at least 65 yards (Jahmyr Gibbs last week). Gibbs is also the only RB to rush for at least 45 yards and score a TD against Tennessee this season.

In Stevenson's last 15 games as an underdog, he is 11-4 toward the UNDER on his rushing prop (73%).

My Picks:

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