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Top 2 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, June 28th (2021)

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Ty Lue and the Clippers find themselves in a familiar spot — on the verge of elimination from the NBA Playoffs. We’ve seen them overcome deficits before — even without Kawhi Leonard — but the Phoenix Suns will be their toughest test to date. That said, the pair of player props below should be safe investments regardless of tonight’s outcome.

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1. Ivica Zubac Over 10.5 Rebounds | -110 at FD Sportsbook

This line doesn’t make much sense given the lineups we’ve seen the Clippers use recently. They’re back to starting Zubac at the five, and he has seen his minutes swell from 18 off the bench (Game 1) to 34 (Game 2), 33 (Game 3), and 40 (Game 4) all as a starter. Zubac beat this total in the three games in which he played 30-plus minutes, too.

The Clippers know they need to leave Zubac on the court because the Suns’ offense has flowed through Deandre Ayton this series. The former first overall pick is averaging 20.3 points per game, trailing only Devin Booker. Fortunately for the Clippers, Zubac owns a one-inch advantage over Ayton, and that’s helped him average 13.7 rebounds per game since Game 2 — well above this total.

While the regular season per-game stats don’t point to value here, as Zubac averaged just 7.2 per game as a rotational player, he did average 11.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. That rate does point to value, as the 24-year-old is averaging exactly that much usage per game over his last three outings.

2. Devin Booker Under 4.5 Assists | -130 at FD Sportsbook

I targeted the over on this prop with Chris Paul sidelined, but now that he’s back (and with two games under his belt, no less), it’s time to play the under. Booker recorded five assists in Paul’s first game back, but he ended up with zero in his most recent outing.

The season-long trends point to value here, too. Booker averaged just 4.3 assists per game in the regular season, and he didn’t record many assists against the Clippers. He posted totals of 8 (Jan. 3), 3 (Apr. 8), and 3 (Apr. 28).

The Suns just don’t need Booker to be a ball-handler with Paul on the court, and he should stay under this (moderately) inflated total tonight — especially if these teams shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4.

Today’s Plus-Money Prop: Ivica Zubac Over 12.5 Rebounds | +188 at FD Sportsbook

NBA Prop Bets

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.