Top 2 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, October 10th (2021)
The WNBA Finals have arrived, and just as we all expected, it’s the No. 5 Phoenix Mercury against the No. 6 Chicago Sky. Gone are the top two seeds, the Aces and Sun, as our finalists dispatched them in the semifinals.
Here are my top picks for Sunday’s WNBA action.
Get a Deposit Bonus up to $500 at BetMGM >>
YTD: 14-13-0 (+1.49u)
1. Sky +3.5 | -115 (1u) at BetMGM
Alright, here’s the deal. The Phoenix Mercury won’t have a starting wing, Kia Nurse, for the rest of the series. She has contributed 0.8 win shares to Phoenix this season, which isn’t a ton, but it’s exactly enough for the model to render the Mercury an underdog. Without her, Phoenix’s active players combine for 18.1 win shares; the Chicago Sky’s active players combine for 18.2. The model interprets this as an 0.08-point advantage for the Sky.
A few other factors make the Sky a strong underdog pick here. First, the Mercury could be without guard Sophie Cunningham, who remains questionable with a calf strain. She hasn’t played since October 3rd. She has contributed 1.4 win shares to the Mercury this season, so her absence would bring Phoenix’s total down to 16.7, which the model reads as a 1.18-point advantage for the Sky.
Second, the Mercury haven’t been great on their home court this year. They lost Game 4 of their last series here, and they went 7-9 ATS at home for the full year. Meanwhile, the Sky are an acceptable 10-8 ATS on the road.
That said, this read isn’t purely a “fade the Mercury!†pick. The Chicago Sky throttled the Connecticut Sun and took their series in just four games. They have also looked decent against the Mercury this year. They suffered a pair of close losses back in June (covering both times, mind you) despite playing without Candace Parker before getting blown out by 20 points this August. However, Kia Nurse led the Mercury in scoring that game, and I’m skeptical that their shrunken rotation can compensate for her absence — especially since the Sky have gotten a few days of extra rest.
2. Sky ML | +135 (.4u) at DK Sportsbook
You’ll get a better deal on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook despite them favoring the Mercury by a narrower (read: 3-point) margin. I recommend that you wager a fourth of a unit to secure roughly a half-unit profit here, which means you’ll still make about a half-unit if the Sky cover but don’t win.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.