Top 2 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, October 3rd (2021)
We are two games into the WNBA semifinals, and both series sit at 1-1 draws. The surging Phoenix Mercury earned an impressive 26-point upset win over the Aces last Tuesday, but I would stay away from them today. Instead, I recommend that you play the Connecticut Sun against a surprisingly small spread.
Here are my top picks for Sunday’s WNBA action.
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YTD: 14-11-0 (+3.49u)
1. Sun -3.5 | -110 (1.5u) at BetMGM
The Chicago Sky upset the Connecticut Sun in Game 1, but they fell back to Earth in Game 2. The Sun won and covered in an 11-point home victory. They’re now just 3.5-point favorites in a road game against one of the WNBA’s worst home teams.
The Sky have gone a dismal 5-12 ATS at home this season. Their home cover percentage (29.4%) ranks second-worst in the league, ahead of only the now-eliminated Seattle Storm. In contrast, the Sun are a solid 10-6 ATS on the road, which gives them the WNBA’s second-best cover percentage (behind only the Mercury) in such situations.
But the trends aren’t the only factor going into this pick. Both the efficiency metrics and player win shares point to value on Connecticut here. My efficiency-based spread favors the Sun by a 4.28-point margin, and my win share spread favors Connecticut by 9.64 points.
With Brionna and Jonquel Jones, the Sun boast a size advantage that the Sky can’t counter regularly. Chicago guard Courtney Vandersloot needed to grab 10 boards in Game 1 just to force a 42-42 rebounding draw, but the 5-foot-8 guard couldn’t repeat that performance in Game 2. As a result, the Sun outrebounded the Sky 39-26.
I’ll up my recommended stake for this play. My model calls it a lock.
2. Sun -4.5 | +105 (.5u) at BetMGM
My model still likes this spread teased up to -4.5, and you can get that line in the plus money at BetMGM. While I’m keeping the size small here because of the added risk, you should feel comfortable about wagering a half-unit (roughly a third of your prospective winnings on the above bet) to profit another half-unit.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.