Top 2 WNBA Betting Picks for Sunday, September 5th (2021)
I’ll say it: oof. If you’ve followed this column, you’d know that things were going okay â — but then last Tuesday’s 0-3 showing brought us down from roughly breaking even to multiple units in the hole. That’s not what we like to see, but I’m optimistic that my analysis (and the law of large numbers) will carry us back to around .500 today.
The WNBA is back in action with a pair of games this afternoon, and here are my top WNBA betting picks for them.
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YTD: 5-8-0 (-2.61u)
1. Dream +6.5 | -110 (1.75u) at DK Sportsbook
My WNBA betting model has missed on the Dream before, but I’m optimistic that it’ll hit tonight. The Dream played the Dallas Wings close on Thursday, as they lost by just four points, and I have faith that they can do so again. Forward Isabelle Harrison led the Wings in rebounds (10) and ranked fourth in points scored (11) in that matchup, but she tested positive for COVID-19 late on Saturday, so the Wings will have to operate without her.
My player win-share based model seeks to quantify each woman’s contributions to her team’s win probability, and Harrison’s absence spells trouble for the Wings. She ranks second on the roster in win shares per game (2). The model still favors Dallas by a 7.6-point margin, but that slight of an edge is immaterial, and it doesn’t correct for the last-minute adjustments Dallas will have to make following her test. For some perspective, they would have been 9.1-point favorites with her in the lineup.
The other components of my model point to an edge on Atlanta. The efficiency-based model favors the Wings by just a 3.5-point margin, well below the posted spread. The betting trends point to value, too. The Dream have gone 8-5 ATS on the road; in contrast, the Wings have gone just 5-7 ATS at home.
You should feel confident enough about this play to lay a bit extra.
2. Dream ML | +230 (.25u) at DK Sportsbook
The Dream may be on an 11-game losing skid, but if it’s ever going to end, now’s the time. The Wings are vulnerable without Harrison, and the Dream could expand their eight-woman rotation to nine players if Candice Dupree or Tianna Hawkins can play through their questionable tags. This line doesn’t offer great value for a team that hasn’t won since June 29th, but Atlanta did have a lead heading into the fourth quarter of Thursday’s game against the Wings. I have faith that they can seal the deal today.
Why .25u? A smart rule of thumb for underdog betting is to put at least 10% of your wager on the moneyline (h/t Matt Perrault). That said, I’ve rounded up a bit to get us to two units for today’s action.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.