Top 2 WNBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 28th (2021)
The WNBA semifinals have arrived. On one side of the bracket, we’ve got a best-of-five game series between the surging Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces. On the other, the Connecticut Sun will square off against the Chicago Sky in another five-game set. The Mercury and Sky are somewhat surprising teams to see here; they finished fifth and sixth in the regular season, respectively. However, they have the talent and the momentum to steal a game or two before the finals.
Here are my top picks for Tuesday’s WNBA action.
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YTD: 13-10-0 (+2.68u)
1. Mercury +6.5 | -110 at BetMGM
When the WNBA returned from the Olympic break in August, the Phoenix Mercury came out on a tear. They won 10 straight games! While an 0-3 slump to end the regular season may have derailed their momentum, Phoenix didn’t have much to play for at the end of the year.
My model likes Phoenix for a couple of reasons. First, the season-long efficiency metrics point to a 2.97-point edge for the Aces, which sits under this spread by a healthy margin. While the model’s win share component doesn’t love Phoenix tonight, it only favors the Aces by 5.94 points, which also sits under this spread.
Second, it also likes Phoenix because they’ve been a solid road team this year. Phoenix has gone an impressive 12-5 ATS when away from home. That said, the Aces have looked good at home this year. They are 10-6 ATS on their home court. Still, the Mercury beat the Aces in their only trip to Las Vegas in the regular season.
Although Las Vegas boasts an elite duo of bigs in Liz Cambage and A’ja Wilson, Phoenix’s Brittney Griner has been able to keep pace with those two. She recorded 27 points and 11 rebounds against the Aces in May. Cambage and Wilson combined for just 26 points (but 17 rebounds) in that one. In July, Griner recorded 33 points and 10 rebounds to Cambage and Wilson’s 41 and 20. She may not be able to carry the Mercury over the Aces, but she can certainly keep things close.
The Aces haven’t beaten the Mercury by more than six points all year. They topped them by exactly six in May, lost by nine in July, and won by a single point this month. The red-hot Mercury should cover tonight.
2. Mercury ML | +240 (.1u) at BetMGM
The Mercury have a better shot of beating the Aces than their moneyline odds indicate. Two of their regular-season games came down to the wire, and the Mercury emerged victorious in one of them. They should win at least one game in this series, and what better one to win than the first? That said, you should limit your action to no more than 20% of what you’re placing on the spread. I’m limiting my action to just .1u here in hopes of profiting a quarter unit.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.