Top 2 WNBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 7th (2021)
The WNBA playoffs are fast approaching, and we’re still in a slight hole with these picks. However, Sunday’s 2-0 showing netted us a whopping +2.17u — who knew that taking a team that had last won in June could be so profitable?
I expect to build on that momentum with a strong performance tonight. Here are my top WNBA bets for the evening’s action.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
YTD: 7-8-0 (-0.44u)
1. Sun -8.5 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
Fading the banged-up Wings worked on Sunday, and we’ll go back to the well here. Dallas lost starting forward Isabelle Harrison to the health and safety protocols before their last game, and her absence contributed to a losing effort against Atlanta. So did injuries to star guard Moriah Jefferson, who is questionable for tonight’s action, and center Bella Alaire, who doesn’t have an injury designation but still may be limited.
The Wings have just two bigs with clean bills of health, rookies Charli Collier and Awak Kuier, both of whom average 12 or fewer minutes per game. In contrast, the Sun have size all over their roster, including forwards Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones, both of whom rank top three in win shares. The Joneses combined for 22 rebounds in the last meeting between these teams, the same number as Dallas’ entire roster. If you take out Harrison’s contributions, that number falls to just 17. I expect a bloodbath on the glass.
My WNBA betting model doesn’t love this read, but two components do point to value. First, the Wings are now 5-8 ATS at home after their loss to Atlanta, while the Sun are a decent 7-6 ATS on the road. Second, the win share model favors the Sun by a 10.5-point margin, two points higher than this spread. It would favor them slightly more if either Jefferson or Alaire sit, too.
The Sun have beaten the Wings twice this year, once by 10 points (June 22) and once by 21 (August 15). I expect a similar result tonight.
2. Wings Under 72.5 | -160 at BetMGM
These teams combined for 150 points in their first meeting and 139 in their second. In the first game, the Wings got 16 points from Satou Sabally and eight more from Isabelle Harrison; neither player will be available tonight. In the second, Harrison scored four of Dallas’ disappointing 59 points, and the banged-up Jefferson and Alaire added six more.
Dallas will struggle to score against a bigger Connecticut squad that leads the WNBA in defensive efficiency and defensive rebounding percentage. They surrender just 71.3 points per game, a WNBA low, and play at the league’s slowest pace.
The Wings have averaged only 72.7 points per game since the Olympic break. You shouldn’t expect an above-average showing from an injury-riddled roster against the league’s best defense.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.