9 Top 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets From the Experts

by BettingPros Staff |
Apr 25, 2024

The 2024 NFL Draft is finally here, and we asked our experts to break down their favorite NFL Draft prop bets for tonight. From quarterbacks’ draft positions to the first running back off the board, this year's draft offers a plethora of betting opportunities that promise high stakes and even higher rewards.

Our experts have scoured the odds, analyzed team needs, and predicted draft day surprises, ensuring that you have the most informed betting strategy as draft day unfolds. Let's delve into their favorite prop bets and uncover why they believe these selections could turn out to be lucrative moves.

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Top 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets

Q. What is your single favorite prop bet heading into the 2024 NFL Draft and why? Please include the odds with your selection.

Note: NFL Draft odds are extremely fluid, especially on draft day. These odds could shift significantly over the course of the next several hours.

J.J. McCarthy to be Drafted 5th Overall (+400)

“It looks like J.J. McCarthy will be the 4th QB selected in this year’s NFL Draft, but where is the question. The Minnesota Vikings have two first round draft choices (11th overall and 23rd overall), and could use both to trade up to land McCarthy. The New York Giants also have reported interest in both J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye, and could make a move up from 6th overall to land one of them. The Arizona Cardinals at 4 and the Los Angeles Chargers at 5 are prime trade partners for QB needy teams. The prospect of choosing WR Marvin Harrison Jr. out of Ohio State will be too much to resist for Arizona. This then leaves the Chargers to potentially trade back, with Jim Harbaugh looking to build through the trenches, and strike a deal with one of Minnesota or the New York Giants to come up for McCarthy at 5th overall. At +400 to go exactly 5th overall, a unit sprinkle will be well worth the time.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Vikings Position of 1st Draft Player: Quarterback (-400)

“It isn’t a sexy plus-money bet, but I’d bet my house that the Vikings select a quarterback with their first pick in the draft (-400 on DraftKings). The Vikings are pot-committed to finding their QB of the future. They acquired the No. 23 pick from Houston so that they’d have the ammunition to move up for a QB if necessary — and it will probably be necessary. This year's QB class is good; next year's QB class doesn't look good. The Vikings have to get their QB of the future NOW. For the Vikings to not draft a QB with their first pick would involve some Wile E. Coyote type of misfortune. Although the franchise has had more than its fair share of misfortune, this time the Vikings get to choose their own adventure. They’re taking a quarterback. Bet on it and collect the easy money. ”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Total QBs Drafted in 1st Round Under 4.5 (+270)

“We have four quarterbacks locked into Round 1. Then it comes down to Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix hearing their name called on Day 1. But given Penix’s injury history, I’d say he falls into Day 2. And it seems like only the Denver Broncos are “high” on Bo Nix. If they don’t take him at 12, he could also experience a dramatic fall. Every year, the media's most overvalued position in the NFL Draft is quarterback. Fade the noise.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Total QBs Draft in 1st Round Over 4.5 (-250)

“How this number isn't at 5.5 is beyond me. We know three quarterbacks are coming off the board in the first three picks - Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye. Furthermore, J.J. McCarthy is all but a lock to be a top-six pick. Therefore, it only takes one of Box Nix or Michael Penix Jr. to come off the board in the final 26 picks of the first round to hit the over. Several NFL Draft experts believe both will get drafted on Thursday night. With several quarterback-needy teams picking outside the top 11, including the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, it's more likely that all six potential first-round quarterbacks come off the board on Day 1 than only four.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“I’m rocking with OVER 4.5 QBs taken in the first round. Some at this company (see above) are going with the under, especially now that the odds have changed. The over is, unfortunately, now -400, as rumors have indicated that Michael Penix Jr. could get drafted in the middle of the first round. I was lucky enough to get the over at even money a couple of weeks ago. I like the pick much less now that the odds are juiced (timing is everything when it comes to most of these NFL Draft prop bets, but I still feel confident that Penix and possibly Bo Nix will go in the first round, even though I don’t think they should. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Steelers Position of 1st Draft Player: Cornerback (+750)

“Scrolling through the odds for ‘Position of First Pick by Team’ and seeing the Steelers drafting an offensive lineman at pick #20 in the negatives doesn’t shock me. What is surprising, however, is that Pittsburgh taking a cornerback is at +750 consensus. Assuming a lot of the top tackles are gone by the time the Steelers are on the clock (think Amarius Mims from Georgia), this is a team that sorely needs a stout presence in the secondary opposite Joey Porter Jr. and has hosted several likely first-round talents on official visits. I’d be more than happy to place a couple of bucks on that.”
– C.H. Herms (Draft Sharks)

MarShawn Lloyd to be the first RB drafted (+900)

“This is +900 DK and +1400 BetRivers as of this writing. Lloyd has been my RB1 throughout the entire process, and there has also been buzz about him being the top guy on NFL team’s boards. Lloyd crushed every part of the draft process, starting with putting on a show on Mobile at the Senior Bowl. Lloyd’s analytical profile also backs up his enticing film. He ranked inside the top 20 running backs in the FBS in each of the last two seasons in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and elusive rating (per PFF). ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

First CB Drafted- Quinyon Mitchell (-165)

“Everything I’ve heard is that Quinyon Mitchell is on top of a lot of teams’ boards at CB. He tested off the charts at the combine. Mitchell can fly. He’s faster than Terrion Arnold and is a better fit in man coverage. I think this is the guy Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman is targeting with an aggressive trade up attempt on draft day.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Michael Penix Jr. Draft Position: Under 32.5 (-450)

“I’m taking the Under on Michael Penix Jr as Pick 32.5. In no way do I believe that Penix Jr is anything better than a Day 2 pick, but it seems that a growing number of NFL general managers do not feel the same way. The general consensus projects Penix Jr to be selected in the teens by one of the quarterback needy teams such as Denver, Las Vegas, or Minnesota, so getting a 15 pick cushion on him feels like easy money. The NFL is going to over draft Penix Jr, bet accordingly.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

Joe Alt Draft Position: Under 7.5 (-375)

“I am taking Joe Alt under 7.5 currently at -375, as it feels about as free money of a pick as you can make this year. Joe Alt will be drafted within the top 7 picks because many NFL teams consider him the best available offensive tackle. Among those top 7 teams, there are a few with significant needs for an offensive tackle, but the team with the biggest need is the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have one of the weakest offensive tackle positions in the league, so it seems unlikely that they would pass on Alt with the 7th pick. He is a perfect fit for the Titans’ requirements, and the team has had multiple visits with him leading up to the NFL draft.”
– Jesse Moeller (Fantasy Football Universe)