Top 3 Betting Picks for the 104th Indianapolis 500 (2020)
Despite Roger Penske’s best efforts, this year’s Indianapolis 500 will run without fans. Last November, he purchased the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where the race is held; in June, he promised the race would only run with fans. Oh well.
Regardless, fans are in for a great race on Sunday. The Brickyard always puts on a show — last year, Simon Pagenaud and Alexander Rossi traded places twice in a thrilling final four laps.
The green flag will wave at 2:30 PM EST on Sunday. That’s also when betting locks at DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure to get your money down before then!
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To Finish Top-5: Alexander Rossi (+135)
Alexander Rossi does his best work at IndyCar’s superspeedways, or large oval tracks. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of those courses, and Rossi has finished no worse than seventh here. In his four attempts, he’s finished first, seventh, fourth, and second, so he’s cleared this line 75 percent of the time.
Rossi posted the third-best time on Carb Day, the final day of practices, and he qualified ninth for the event. Carb Day isn’t a perfect predictor of results, but three top-five finishers last year were at least top-10 in final practice. Also, Marco Andretti, his teammate, has dominated the weekend’s practices. That proves Andretti Autosport has brought some strong equipment to the track.
That said, Rossi could be in better form. He’s posted just one top-five result on the year, but he came close to two more during the Iowa double-header (sixth, eighth). So while I won’t play him to win (+400) or to finish top-three (+225), I’m comfortable playing him to score his second top-five of the year.
Manufacturer of Winning Car: Honda (-225)
Chevrolet’s lack of speed made headlines earlier in the week, and Team Penske even failed to earn a spot in the front three rows. This marks the first top-nine miss for the team in eighteen years. Only one Chevy qualified top-nine, and only three qualified in the top-fifteen. Of the worst 12 starting spots, Chevy owns 11.
Some Chevrolets found speed during practice. Pato O’Ward even clocked the best time on Carb Day! But that won’t mean much on Sunday, as the manufacturer’s lack of consistent speed will force them to rely on strategy calls and in-race adjustments.
This line gives you action on almost all of the favorites: Scott Dixon (+400), Marco Andretti (+800), Alexander Rossi (+800), Ryan Hunter-Reay (+1000), and Takuma Sato (+1600). You miss out on Josef Newgarden (+1100) and Will Power (+1300), but that’s a sacrifice you should be willing to make. Get in on this line before it becomes any less profitable to play.
H2H: Scott Dixon (-182) vs. Marco Andretti
I will be honest — Marco Andretti does not deserve to be a top-three betting option for this weekend. His best finish so far this season is 10th, and he has just three top-fives in his last five IndyCar seasons. He has not won a race since Iowa in 2011. He should not have odds this short, whether they’re to win (+800), finish top-five (+135), or to beat Scott Dixon (+140).
Why not? Well, Scott Dixon has won a race every year since 2004, and he has five top-fives this season alone. That includes a three-race winning streak to open the year. Dixon is 6-0 against Andretti on the season, and he’s 9-5 against him at Indianapolis. Since 2014, Andretti has only beaten Dixon in the Indy 500 when Dixon has crashed out. Dixon has a 4-2 edge through that span.
So, it’s safe to say that this line should not be set at -182. I get that it’s here to pit the top two starters against each other, but even then, it still seems quite lopsided. The implied odds for Dixon to win are 64.56 percent, which gives Andretti a 35.44 chance to earn an upset. That is far, far, too high. This bet should cash as long as Dixon doesn’t wreck, and you should play it with confidence for a one-unit return.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.