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Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/16)

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Welcome back to another Sunday of college basketball picks and predictions. We have a smaller slate of games than normal today, but there are still some marquee matchups on tap with plenty of ways to go for college basketball bets. Before the action tips off, let’s lock in three CBB picks on this Sunday.

We'll start with the best game of the day as St. John’s hosts Creighton in Big East battle. Plus, we have picks for Michigan vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten and Florida Atlantic vs. Temple in the AAC. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, February 16.

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Sunday's Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Creighton at St. John's (-5.5) - O/U 143.5 (-110/-110)

Sunday's matchup between Creighton and St. John's is massive for the Big East title race. St. John's has just a one-game lead over Creighton in the league's regular season standings heading into this showdown. Instead of picking a side against the spread, let's focus on the total in what should be a lower-scoring affair. 

First, Creighton and St. John's are both coming off losses following lengthy winning streaks. The Bluejays lost at home to UConn on Tuesday to break their 9-game win streak. On Wednesday, the Red Storm fell on the road at Villanova to snap a 10-gamer. Both teams should be even more dialed in defensively to get back in the win column.

St. John's is an elite defensive team, ranking second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Storm are also first in the Big East in effective field goal percentage against, defensive turnover rate, and opposing free-throw percentage. They rank ninth and 19th in Division I in defensive block and steal rates, respectively, as well.

The St. John's top-tier defense should set the tone and keep Creighton in check. The Bluejays rank 244th nationally in offensive turnover rate, 314th in offensive rebounding, 344th in offensive steal rate, and 241st in offensive block rate. Those are some worrisome numbers when taking on this mighty St. John's defense. 

The Bluejays rely on their uber-efficient interior scoring, led by Ryan Kalkbrenner. Well, St. John's is excellent at limiting points inside as well. It boasts the best two-point defense in the Big East and eighth-best nationally. Plus, the Red Storm are allowing only 64.3 PPG at home in conference play with less than 70 against in six of seven games.

Meanwhile, St. John's has two glaring weaknesses on offense. The Red Storm struggle to shoot from three-point range and the free-throw line. They rank 351st and 286th among all Division I teams in three-point and free-throw percentages, respectively, this season. During conference play, St. John's is shooting a paltry 24.3% from three (last in Big East). 

Creighton has a top-30 defense itself and can do its part to slow down St. John's despite being on the road. The Bluejays are holding opponents to 30.5% from three-point range this season (32nd in country). The Red Storm offense is also weakened without Deivon Smith, one of the team's lead ball-handlers and distributors who's sidelined for an extended period. 

When these teams met back in December, Creighton squeaked out the home victory by a final score of 57-56. That game easily went under and this one should as well. St. John's is 5-2 to the Under at home in conference play this year and 6-2 to the Under over the past eight games overall. Creighton is also 6-2 to the Under in its last eight and 5-3 to the Under on the road. 

Pick: Under 143.5 Total Points (-110)

Michigan at Ohio State (-2.5) - O/U 150.5 (-110/-110)

One of the best rivalries in college sports hits the hardwood on Sunday with Ohio State hosting Michigan. This game has plenty of meaning for both the Big Ten standings and each squad's NCAA Tournament resumes. The Wolverines are having a better season and are currently first in the conference, but the home Buckeyes are the play. 

Even in a rivalry setting, this is a prime letdown spot for Michigan. It just beat Purdue in a statement win at home earlier this week to take over first place in the Big Ten. The Wolverines also survived on the road at Indiana last weekend in another emotional, hard-fought battle. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State comes in playing very well at home lately. The Buckeyes just crushed Washington by 24 points on this same court earlier this week and pulled off a home win over Maryland last week. They're now 10-4 against the spread (ATS) at home this season with three straight home covers. 

On the flip side, Michigan has failed to cover eight straight games coming into this one. The Wolverines have been a bit overvalued in the betting market themselves, especially away from home. They're just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road/neutral games. 

Michigan may boast the better overall win-loss record and rate higher in the NET or at KenPom, but a few stats point towards Ohio State here. 

The Wolverines struggle to take care of the ball on offense and avoid turnovers. They rank 331st nationally and dead last in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate this year. That becomes an even bigger concern on the road in a rivalry game. 

Those turnovers could loom large if Michigan's shots aren't falling. Ohio State is holding opponents to 29.2% three-point shooting (10th in Division I) and a 46.9% effective field-goal rate (32nd). Michigan, on the other hand, is shooting just 34.1% from three in conference play (9th in Big Ten). 

Conversely, Ohio State ranks first in the entire country in offensive steal rate while Michigan is 305th in defensive steal rate. The Buckeyes boast four capable ball-handlers in the backcourt and on the wings. Devin Royal, Bruce Thornton, Micah Parrish, and John Mobley all have the upside to lead the team in scoring on a given day. 

Ohio State is allowing 69.8 PPG at home in conference play and can hold Michigan to less than 70 points here as well. The Wolverines have scored 70, 66, and 64 points in their past three road games. Grab the home Buckeyes to pull out the home victory. 

Pick: Buckeyes Moneyline (-132)

Florida Atlantic (-2.5) at Temple - O/U 160.5 (-110/-110)

Let's wrap things up with FAU vs. Temple in an American Athletic Conference matchup. This game will surely fly under the radar on Sunday, but we have a clear angle to bet. 

Temple's brand of basketball is the perfect recipe for high-scoring games. The Owls are shooting 41.1% from three-point range in conference play (first in AAC) and get to the free throw line at the ninth-highest rate in the country. On the flip side, they rank 230th nationally in defensive efficiency (last in AAC) with conference opponents shooting 37.5% against them.

Naturally, the Over is 19-5 in Temple's games this season. The Over has also hit in 14 straight coming into the weekend. Shootouts have become commonplace for the Owls, who play at the second-fastest tempo in the AAC. In conference play, they're averaging 82.7 PPG while allowing 84.2 PPG. 

Florida Atlantic should welcome a high-scoring game as well. It's averaging 88.5 PPG over the past four games and prefers to play quickly, ranking 27th nationally in offensive pace this season. FAU also struggles to defend the three, allowing 38.4% from deep this season (358th in the country). 

This matchup sets up for a back-and-forth, uptempo affair with plenty of points scored on both sides. Grab the Over even with an Over/Under hovering around 160. Both teams can put up 80+ points in this spot. 

Pick: Over 160.5 Total Points (-110)

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