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Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/23)

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Welcome back to another Sunday of college basketball picks and predictions. There are a ton of intriguing matchups on tap today, so let’s get into the top plays before the action tips off.

A Big East showdown featuring UConn vs. St. John’s headlines the picks. Plus, we check out predictions for Arizona State vs. Kansas State in the Big 12 and Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis in the AAC. 

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, February 23rd.

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Sunday’s Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

UConn at St. John's (-4.5) | O/U 138.5 (-115/-105)

One of Sunday's biggest games is a Big East battle between UConn and St. John's. The home Red Storm are 14-2 in league play with a two-game lead for first place in the conference. The visiting Huskies, on the other hand, have been up and down all season in their quest for a third straight national title. 

Connecticut hasn't exactly looked like the two-time defending champ lately. The Huskies are 6-5 over their last 11 games and have slipped to 36th in the NET Rankings. They lost at Seton Hall last weekend and needed a double-digit second-half comeback to edge Villanova at home on Tuesday. 

Despite these two shaky performances, UConn is still a live road underdog at St. John's today. We've recently seen the Huskies' ceiling when they beat both Marquette and Creighton on the road in the past month. The inconsistencies are tough to ignore, but Dan Hurley's squad can beat anyone at its best. 

UConn boasts the 15th-best offensive efficiency in the country this season, per KenPom. The offense has gotten a boost lately with the return of future NBA lottery pick Liam McNeeley. The freshman is averaging 21.8 points per game (PPG) over the last four games since returning from an ankle injury. His scoring can be a difference-maker when facing the elite defense of St. John's. 

This is a classic revenge spot for Connecticut after losing at home to St. John's a couple of weeks ago. Hurley should have his team motivated to return the favor. Plus, though this is technically a road game for the Huskies, they will have plenty of fans in Madison Square Garden. 

On that note, UConn is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 6-1 against the spread (ATS) at MSG in the regular season over the past four years. That includes two straight wins and covers against St. John's in the building. The Huskies are also 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season. 

As for St. John's, its struggles in two key areas are bound to cost them. The Red Storm are the worst three-point and free-throw shooting team in the Big East. They also rank 343rd and 301st in the country in three-point and free-throw shooting percentages, respectively. UConn, meanwhile, owns a top-tier interior defense - ranking 12th in two-point defense and second in defensive block rate. 

St. John's already can't shoot from the perimeter and could have issues scoring inside in this matchup. The offense may also be without leading scorer and alpha playmaker RJ Luis, who's doubtful to play with a groin injury. There's clear value on Connecticut to keep this close and possibly win outright. 

Pick: UConn +4.5 (-102)

Florida Atlantic at Memphis (-9.5) | O/U 159.5 (-110/-110)

A week ago, Memphis lost in overtime on the road at Wichita State. It was a rare blemish for a team now 11-2 in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and had won eight straight beforehand. Let's back the Tigers to get back on track at home with Florida Atlantic coming to town. 

Memphis has responded well after losses this season. It's 4-0 SU in games following a loss so far, winning by an average of 10.3 PPG. Penny Hardaway's squad should also benefit greatly from having a full week off ahead of today's home matchup. Furthermore, the Tigers have just a one-game lead in the AAC over North Texas and UAB - making a win today even more important. 

Last weekend's loss at Wichita State requires some context as well. Memphis had an eight-point second-half lead and even led by four with less than a minute remaining. It should've been a Tigers victory but multiple late missed shots and free throws cost them. 

Florida Atlantic, coincidentally, also lost to Wichita last time out (on Thursday). However, the Owls' season is going a bit differently than their opponents today. They're 15-11 overall, 8-5 in conference play and 104th in the NET Rankings. 

Florida Atlantic has regularly underperformed against tough competition and on the road. It's 1-5 ATS as underdogs this year and just 3-7 ATS on the road. Taking on a hungry and well-rested Memphis team is not an ideal time to bounce back. 

Memphis owns a massive advantage in three-point shooting on both sides today. Florida Atlantic is allowing opponents to shoot 38.8% from three this year (362nd in Division I) while Memphis is shooting 40.4% from deep (fourth). On the other side, the Tigers are holding teams to a conference-best 29.4% three-point rate in AAC play. 

This discrepancy is the main reason why Memphis beat Florida Atlantic by a score of 90-62 back in January. The Tigers shot 55.6% from the perimeter while the Owls went just 5-for-31 from deep (16.1%). The margin might not be as big this time around, but it should still be a comfortable victory for the home favorites. 

Pick: Memphis -9.5 (-105)

Arizona State at Kansas State (-6.5) | O/U 143.5 (-115/-105)

After starting 1-6 in the Big 12 and 7-11 overall, Kansas State has turned its season around. The Wildcats recently won six straight, including victories over Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas in a four-game span. They're currently outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble but can make things interesting with a strong finish. 

Over the past month, Kansas State has been playing like the 10th-best team in the sport, according to BartTorvik. That's despite losing the past two games. On that note, it's a good time to back the Wildcats coming off a tough road trip where they lost back-to-back games at BYU last Saturday and at Utah on Monday. The long layoff and returning home should help today. 

Kansas State is 6-1 ATS at home in conference play, including five straight home covers coming into the weekend. The Wildcats are averaging 78 PPG over their last four home games and the offense can set the tone today. Their talented transfer group of Dug McDaniel, Coleman Hawkins and Brendan Hausen has been more reliable lately. 

Arizona State, meanwhile, is 3-12 in conference play and has lost six straight games. It ranks 12th in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in two-point defense in conference play. Those interior struggles can spell trouble when defending Kansas State's frontcourt duo of Hawkins and David N’Guessan. Plus, Arizona State ranks 312th nationally in defensive steal rate. 

The Sun Devils also have multiple glaring offensive weaknesses. They rank 267th nationally in offensive turnover rate, 291st in offensive rebounding, 316th in offensive block rate and 330th in offensive steal rate. Arizona State won't be able to keep pace scoring-wise on the road with Kansas State in this matchup. 

One of Arizona State's strengths offensively is its 35.8% three-point shooting. However, Kansas State defends the perimeter well - holding conference opponents to 31.8% from deep. The Wildcats force teams to score inside, which is not what ASU prefers to do. 

Kansas State beat Arizona State on the road earlier this month, winning outright as a 3-point underdog. In that game, N’Guessan (22 points) and Hawkins (11 points, seven assists, six rebounds) set the tone and anchored the road win. Bank on the Wildcats to do it again at home for this rematch. 

Pick: Kansas State -6.5 (-110)

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