Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (3/2)
Welcome back to another Sunday of college basketball picks and predictions. There are a ton of intriguing matchups on tap today, so let's get into the top plays before the action tips off.
A Big Ten showdown featuring Illinois and Michigan headlines the picks. Plus, we check out predictions for Quinnipiac vs. Merrimack in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) and then Missouri State vs. Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC).
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, March 2nd.
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Sunday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Illinois at Michigan (-2.5) | O/U 158.5 (-110/-110)
Despite losing to Michigan State last week, Michigan is still tied with its rival atop the Big Ten standings heading into Sunday. Both teams have critical matchups on Sunday afternoon. We'll focus on the Wolverines' side of things in their home showdown against Illinois.
Michigan has been playing with fire a lot lately. Each of its last nine wins has come by four or fewer points. That includes Thursday night's home victory over Rutgers when the Wolverines needed a buzzer-beating three-pointer to survive. They also beat Nebraska by just two points in the game prior.
The thin margins of victory are admittedly hard to ignore. However, it provides a buy-low opportunity on the Wolverines while the public is down on them. There's something to be said about a team that regularly finds ways to win. That was on full display vs. Rutgers as Michigan pulled off a double-digit second-half comeback. Dusty May's squad is overdue for a comfortable result and there's a prime opportunity today.
Illinois has notably and consistently underperformed in its toughest and biggest games this season. The Illini are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six games away from home. In the past month alone, Illinois has lost by double-digits to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke. The latter two were losses of 21 and 43 points, respectively.
Illinois' struggles to score from the perimeter could be an issue today. The Illini are shooting 30.5% from three-point range this season (327th in Division I) and 29.2% during conference play (last in the Big Ten). Meanwhile, Michigan is holding opponents to 31.3% shooting from deep (46th nationally). The Wolverines also boast the size to limit scoring inside.
One of Michigan's glaring weaknesses is turning the ball over. It ranks 234th nationally and last in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate. Yet, Illinois doesn't force many turnovers itself. It ranks 356th nationally and last in the conference in defensive turnover rate.
Illinois' lightning-quick pace (18th in Division I) isn't an advantage in this spot either. Michigan also likes to play fast and has the offensive upside to match the Illini. The Wolverines have also shown the unique ability to win both high-scoring and low-scoring games.
Interestingly, Illinois has dominated Michigan in recent years - winning eight straight meetings with a 7-1 ATS record in this stretch. That was the Juwan Howard era, though. It's Dusty May's turn to flip the script. This team is bound to win by more than one possession at some point soon. Plus, Illinois could get in a big hole if it's not making threes.
Pick: Michigan -2.5 (-120)
Quinnipiac (-2.5) at Merrimack | O/U 140.5 (-114/-116)
Let's go off the board a bit for this next pick. How about some MAAC-tion with Quinnipiac vs. Merrimack on Sunday? This may seem like a random game to target, but we have a few trends and stats pointing towards one particular squad.
First off, Quinnipiac is in a tough spot. The Bobcats were just at home on Friday night and now play on the road fewer than 48 hours later. Having one day off in between games has not been too kind to them. Quinnipiac is 2-6 ATS when playing on short rest this season (one day off). It’s also just 5-10 ATS on the road.
Merrimack is also playing their second game in three days. Conversely, though, the Warriors have handled these situations excellently. They're 7-1 straight up (SU) in the second game on short rest this year. Joe Gallo's team will also benefit from playing at home on both Friday and today.
At first glance, Quinnipiac is the better team. It leads the MAAC with a 14-3 league record and has won 11 of its last 13 games coming into the weekend. Merrimack, on the other hand, is 12-6 in conference play and has lost four of its last five games.
Still, Merrimack has the motivational angle. Quinnipiac just needed a double-digit comeback to beat Saint Peter's on the road on Friday. The victory means the Bobcats need only one win in their final three games to clinch the regular season MAAC title. Meanwhile, Merrimack needs to win this game to stay alive for the league championship.
Plus, Merrimack will be out for revenge after losing to Quinnipiac back in January. In that prior meeting, the Bobcats won 81-76 while shooting 53.5% from the field. They successfully turned it into a high-scoring game and forced Merrimack to play at their quick pace. For this rematch, look for the Warriors to slow things down and lean on their defense more.
Merrimack ranks 313th nationally in adjusted tempo this year, per KenPom. Its defense is also its strength. The Warriors boast the ninth-best defensive turnover rate in the whole country - an impressive feat for a MAAC team. They're also holding opponents to 31.3% shooting from three (50th in Division) and a 47.3% effective field-goal percentage (33rd).
Pick: Merrimack +2.5 (-118)
Missouri State at Drake (-14.5) | O/U 119.5 (-115/-105)
Alright, let's get really weird for our last pick today. Drake just clinched the regular season Missouri Valley Conference title on Wednesday - its first outright league title since 2008. The Bulldogs edged out Evansville in a hard-fought road win to seal the deal.
The letdown factor for Drake is very much in play here. We have to wonder about the Bulldogs' motivation for a meaningless game against a bad team right after locking up the conference title. Yes, it's at home but Drake could take it easy before the MVC tournament starts up later this week.
Full disclosure: Drake is a much better team than Missouri State. The latter is 9-21 overall this season and just 2-17 in league play. Normally, we wouldn't touch the latter to keep things close against a powerhouse squad like Drake.
Still, the situational spot favors Missouri State to cover a large spread. On that note, the Bears are 13-7 ATS as underdogs this season (65%) and 7-3 ATS as dogs of five or more points. They're also 2-1 ATS as double-digit road underdogs.
On the flip side, Drake is 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points this season. The Bulldogs are also only 2-6 ATS and 3-5 SU vs. Missouri State in their past eight meetings. Of course, this current Bears team is a bit worse in recent years - but it's a trend that's tough to ignore.
Speaking of previous matchups, Missouri State played Drake tough back in January. The Bulldogs ultimately prevailed in overtime but they scored just 55 points at the end of regulation.
Both teams play very slowly - Drake is 364th in pace nationally and Missouri State is 337th. That will severely limit the amount of total possessions, as evidenced by the very low total today. It was the case in their prior matchup, too. It also naturally makes it harder for any double-digit favorite to stretch out a lead and win big - no matter the talent discrepancy as we have here.
Pick: Missouri State +14.5 (-112)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: