Top 3 MLB Bets for April 8th (Parlays & Run Line)

Moneyline. Parlays. Whatever your preferred poison, we have you covered for an exciting day of baseball. Today, two of baseball’s best pitchers add some excitement to my picks. The third contest features a criminally underrated pitcher who always seems to pitch well when healthy. Let’s jump right in.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Form
The New York Yankees are set to go head-to-head with the Houston Astros in the day’s marquee matchup. Both teams will send a heavyweight to the mound. The Yankees will roll with the impressive Masahiro Tanaka, and the Astros will call upon one of the best in ace Justin Verlander. Tanaka has been great this season, surrendering only two runs (one in each start) in 12.1 innings. Verlander excelled in his first start, but got roughed up by the Texas Rangers (4 IP, 4 ER) last Tuesday. While Tanaka has been the better pitcher early this season, Verlander is still the superior starter. Pitcher form provides little in the way of gaining a perceptible edge.

New York has produced more runs on the season, sitting at 5.4 per contest following Sunday’s 15-3 rout over the Baltimore Orioles. Houston, meanwhile, has disappointed in this category with a mere 3.3. This is mostly due to road woes; the Astros have scored 18 runs in three home contests thus far. The win/loss records are rather similar as well, with the Yankees sitting at 5-4 and the Astros at 5-5. The Yankees appear to hold the slight edge in the team form department.

Trends
Much like form analysis did not present us much in the way of a definitive lean, trends provide little clarity. The Astros are undefeated in Verlander’s last five starts with five days’ rest. They have also won four of his last five starts against a team with a winning record. They hold the same mark in their last five games following a loss as well as Verlander’s last five home starts. Tanaka is 7-1 in his last eight Monday starts, as well as his last series-opening games. Adding further confusion, the Yankees have won six of his last seven starts against the AL West. As alluded to above, there is little in the way of an edge based on pitcher trends.

Line
The line on this contest speaks volumes. Current form and trends make this contest seem like more of a 50/50 proposition, but the odds do not reflect that. As always, reading between the lines can yield some interesting insights. The Astros at -156 suggest they are overwhelming favorites despite their opponent’s obvious talent. The +136 for the Yankees looks like the trap line here.

The public seems to agree, as 60 percent of bettors have sided with the Astros. Verlander is quite simply a far superior starting option. Vegas believes in this fact so much that they are willing to offer +136 for a Yankees team playing better baseball to this point of the season. A -156 line is too high to be a trap, so it was likely set to dissuade action on the Astros in favor of the Yankees. The Astros are the definitive lean here.

Pick: Houston Astros

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

Form
The Tampa Bay Rays are slated to do battle with the Chicago White Sox. The Rays will send Blake Snell to the mound, while the White Sox will call upon Carlos Rodon. Snell had a tough start to the season, but he bounced back in a major way by hurling seven shutout innings while racking up 13 strikeouts against the Colorado Rockies. This is the Snell I expect to show up today. Rodon has been impressive so far this season, currently holding a 1.59 ERA over two starts. Rodon may be in better form because of Snell’s rough opening start against the Astros, but the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is the superior pitcher by a wide margin.

The Rays have been the stronger team this season, residing at 7-3 heading into this afternoon’s action, The White Sox, on the other hand, sit at the opposite end of the spectrum at 3-5. With that said, the Rays have actually managed to score fewer runs per game. They have tallied 3.4 runs per contest to the White Sox’s 5.3. Limiting scoring is Tampa Bay’s key to victory, and Snell is just the man for the job. The Rays hold the edge based on both starting pitcher and form.

Trends
There is a groundswell of trends in support of a Rays victory in this contest. They are 5-0 in Snell’s last five road starts. They are also undefeated in his last seven starts against a team with a losing record. They have won four of his last five road starts against teams with losing records. On the White Sox side, there are a few trends in which they come out on top. They are 1-4 in the Rodon’s last five starts, and they have the same mark in their past series-opening games. Making matters worse, they’ve lost 11 of their last 14 home games. The Rays are the easy pick here based on trends.

Line
The line should tell you all you need to know. Despite averaging more runs per game, the White Sox still find themselves as +136 underdogs. The Rays, the team with the better record and the better starting pitcher, sit at -156. A whopping 75 percent of the public is currently in favor of the Rays. This suggests that Snell taking the mound makes the Rays the favorites not only in Vegas’ eyes, but in the public’s as well. The Rays, with both form and trends on their side, are the pick for this contest.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to square off against the St. Louis Cardinals in an evening contest. The Dodgers will call on trusty lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu while the Cardinals turn to the promising Miles Mikolas. Ryu has been stellar so far on the season. He has won both starts, surrendering just three runs in 13 innings. Mikolas, on the other hand, has been tagged to an unsightly 7.20 ERA through two outings. The Dodgers hold the distinct advantage based on starting pitcher form.

The Dodgers have been the superior team this season. They have registered an MLB-high 8.4 runs per contest while the Cardinals sit at 4.6. The Cardinals place in the top half of scoring, but it will not be enough against a high-powered offense like the Dodgers. As one would expect from their prolific scoring, the Dodgers have a winning record at 8-2. The Cardinals are 4-5 due to giving up almost as many runs as they score (+1 differential). The Dodgers are the pick based on pitcher and team form.

Trends
There are some intriguing trends that suggest the Dodgers should pull out a victory. They are undefeated in their last five road games against a right-handed starter. They are also undefeated in their last four games following a victory, as well as Ryu’s last four starts to begin a series. The Dodgers sit at 6-2 in his last eight starts against a team with a losing record.

However, there are some trends that suggest that the Cardinals have a better chance in this contest than many may think. They are undefeated in Mikolas’ last four starts against a team with a losing record, as well as his last four against the NL West. They are also undefeated in his last seven against a team with a losing record. Further cementing the Cardinals as a potential upside play, they are 7-1 in his last eight home starts. On the other side of things, they are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. They have also dropped five of their last six home games. The Dodgers are the pick here based on trends.

Line
The line in this contest is very interesting. It looks like Vegas is expecting a pitchers’ duel or a high-scoring output from both sides. The Dodgers are favored at only -124, and the Cardinals sit at +104. A line this low in a contest that appears lopsided on the surface should cause some skepticism. Trap games exist in all sports, and the line indicates that this may indeed be one. Only 57 percent of the public is currently siding with the Dodgers. This should be further cause for concern. While I am in no way advocating only laying action when the overwhelming consensus lines up with your lean, a split ticket like this should raise some eyebrows. Do not go heavy on the units, but based on form and trends, the Dodgers are still the wise pick.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Parlay

The payout on these three contests, if you’re willing to utilize them all in a parlay, is +383.33. Plus money is the goal of any moneyline parlay, and that objective is achieved here. Parlays are often the preferred way to partake in baseball wagering as run lines (or point spread) have never really caught on the way Vegas may have hoped. Baseball is too unpredictable, and Vegas too unwilling to take baths on heavy underdog wins, hence moneylines that are attractive enough to take as single-bet options. All three of these picks make for attractive single-bet options, but they are just as attractive in a parlay. Roll with the parlay if you wish to avoid laying heavy juice to get a full unit return.

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 5-4 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.