Top 3 MLB Bets for April 5th (Parlays & Run Line)

Run support. Record. Starting pitching. Trends. Line. These are the five areas to evaluate when deciding where to lay your MLB betting action on any given day. When it comes to baseball betting, spreads (or run lines) actually see the least action by way of volume. As such, we will focus on moneyline picks to utilize in a parlay if so desired.  

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies

Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers will square off against the Colorado Rockies in an early game by their standards. Kenta Maeda is slated to get the start for the Dodgers while Tyler Anderson will get the call for the Rockies. Maeda, one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball, gives the Dodgers a good chance to win every time he takes the mound. He pitched 6.2 innings in his season debut, giving up three runs and striking out six. Anderson, on the other hand, got shelled for five runs in five innings by the hapless Miami Marlins. The Dodgers have a clear advantage based on starting pitchers. They are 5-2 on the season, while the Rockies sit at 3-4. Los Angeles also holds the edge in the average runs scored department, topping Colorado 7.9 to 2.4.

Trends
There are some interesting trends both for and against the Dodgers in this one. Dating back to last season, they have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They are also 4-1 in their last five contests against a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. On the other side of the coin, they are 1-4 in Maeda’s last five starts. They sit at 1-5 in their last six road games against a left-handed starting pitcher. However, there are no convincing trends supporting a Rockies victory here. They are 1-4 in Anderson’s last five home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rockies have been just as disappointing in their last seven against the NL West, going 1-6. The Dodgers are the pick based on trends.

Line
The line on this one initially caused some concern. Despite the Dodgers having both trends and form on their side, Vegas had it rather low. The Dodgers opened as -125 favorites with the Rockies sitting at +105. It looked like the line could hold with only 54 percent of the public in favor of the Dodgers, but it has climbed to -135 on Bovada.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics

Form
The Houston Astros are set to battle the Oakland Athletics. The Astros will go with the impressive Collin McHugh, while Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Athletics. A former top prospect, Montas lacks consistency but looked good in his previous start. He allowed just one run on three hits with no walks against the Los Angeles Angels. McHugh, who is now locked in as a starter, will also look to keep the good times rolling. He allowed just two runs in five innings while striking out nine in his lone start of the season against Tampa Bay.

The Athletics are 5-4 so far this season, while the Astros sit at a disappointing 2-5. In terms of runs scored per game, neither team has impressed. The Athletics sit at 3.8, while the Astros have a mere 2.1 per contest. The Athletics have been the better team based on form. With that said, McHugh is the more dependable pitcher at the moment, and he should require minimal run support through the first five innings. It is difficult to take a strong lean on either side based on a combination of both team and starting pitcher form.

Trends
Much like form gave us no definitive lean, trends offers the same mixed bag of results. The Athletics are undefeated in Montas’ last six starts against a team with a losing record. They are also 5-1 in his last six starts on the road. Furthermore, they are 4-1 in his last five turns following a quality start. On the other side of the coin, the A’s are 2-5 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter. They are also 1-6 in their last seven road starts against a right-hander.  

On the Astros side, they have won six of last seven games following an off day. They are 13-3 in McHugh’s last sixteen starts with five days’ rest. They are also 32-6 in his last 38 starts against teams in the NL West. Finally, they are 4-1 in his last five starts following a team loss in the previous game. Like the A’s, however, there are some trends working against them. The Astros are 1-6 in their last seven against teams with a winning record. They also haven’t won any of their last six against right-handed pitchers. Adding to the confusion is the fact that the Astros are 1-4 in McHugh’s last five home starts against teams with a winning record.

Line
The line on this contest speaks volumes. Despite the uncertainty presented by recent form and trends, the Astros are cost-prohibitive -166 favorites in this contest. The line makes little sense unless Vegas sharps know something we do not. It is true my initial lean was towards the Astros, but -176 provides little value. With that said, we are in the business of picking winners and not chasing values. The Astros are the definitive lean here, and Vegas’ overconfidence should inspire some of your own. The public is relatively split on this contest, with 57 percent of the action currently placed on the Astros. The A’s at +143 provide some appeal for underdog chaser, but the Astros are the pick.

Pick: Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox

Form
The Seattle Mariners are slated to face off against the Chicago White Sox. The Mariners will call on exciting newcomer Yusei Kikuchi, while the Sox will roll with the impressive, but inconsistent Reynaldo Lopez. In two starts this season, Kikuchi has allowed only three runs in 10.2 innings. Lopez was lit up for four runs in four innings in his lone start of the season. The M’s and Sox sit at other sides of the spectrum in terms of records at 7-1 and 2-3, respectively. Both of these teams have had little trouble scoring. The Mariners have tallied seven runs per contest while the White Sox, despite their record, have put up 5.2 per outing. The Mariners are in better form, but the White Sox could provide enough run support to make this game interesting.

Trends
There are some trends in favor of the Mariners, who have won seven of their last eight contests against a right-handed starter. They are also 7-1 in their last eight against teams with a losing record. The White Sox, on the other hand, have lost each of their last five outings against the AL West. They sit at 2-9 in their last 11 home games and are an equally uninspiring 1-4 in Lopez’s latest starts against teams with a losing record.  

Line
The line here provides some confusion. The Mariners should be favorites in this one but are currently listed at +165. If this line holds, this has the potential to be a multiple-unit lay. DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks favor Seattle at -122 and -124, respectively. Adding support to them as the lean, 62 percent of the public is currently in on the Mariners. The M’s have both trends and form behind them and should be an easy click at whatever odds your book of choice offers.   

Pick: Seattle Mariners

Parlay
Depending on the line you can get for those contests, a parlay with these three teams could pay $392.84. Parlays are often the preferred way to get action on multiple favorites, and today should be no different. All three of these contests appear to be strong single-game betting options, but they are equally attractive in a parlay. Some bettors are not fans of having to lay multiple, or close to multiple units for a single-unit return, so put some action on the parlay if this sounds like you. 

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 3-3 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.