Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/17)
It's Rivalry Weekend in the MLB, and we have 15 thrilling rivalry matchups on the docket today. Below, I've narrowed in on three of those games from a sports betting angle, and you'll also find my favorite bets of the day. Here are my top three MLB bets today.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colorado Rockies (+295) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-375) | 9.5 (+102/-122)
Let's pick things up out west, where the Diamondbacks (24-21) host the Rockies (7-37) and will attempt to notch their third straight win. They'll turn to Zac Gallen, while Colorado opts for German Marquez. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Let's address the elephant in the room, which is German Marquez's massive 8.27 ERA. The right-hander hasn't been good this season, but he is coming off of his best start of the year. He just shut down the Padres over 7.0 innings, conceding only one earned run on three hits and a walk. Marquez has also found a ton of success against the Diamondbacks, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .229/.308/.476 over 105 at-bats. As long as he's somewhat serviceable tonight, I expect this game to stay under this elevated total of 9.0 runs.
On the flip side, we should see Zac Gallen (4.59 ERA) turn in a gem. He's mowed down the Rockies in his career, holding their current team to a slash line of .231/.296/.338 over 65 at-bats. This Colorado offense is abysmal, ranking 29th in overall scoring with 3.14 runs per game. Over the last seven days, they're dead last in both wRC+ (49) and wOBA (.258), while sitting 29th in ISO (.106). I'll take the under.
Bet: Under 9.5 Runs (-122)
Seattle Mariners (+164) vs. San Diego Padres (-198) | 8.5 (-102/-118)
The Mariners (24-19) logged a 5-1 series-opening win over the Padres (27-16) last night, and they'll turn to Emerson Hancock to make it two straight victories tonight. San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta in this interleague clash, which gets underway at 8:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
From a raw runs per game standpoint, these are two of the better offenses in the MLB. Seattle is ninth in scoring (4.79 RPG), while San Diego is 13th (4.58 RPG). Over the last seven days, the Padres are sixth in wRC+ (128), sixth in wOBA (.353), and 13th in ISO (.176), while the Mariners are 26th (74), 27th (.267), and 17th (.150) in the same categories.
Those numbers aren't fantastic for the M's, but they'll get a decent matchup tonight against Nick Pivetta. I expect them to help contribute several runs to this final score, helping to push the total over. The current roster is slashing .294/.368/.718 against the right-hander over 85 at-bats. That's a 1.086 OPS over a very sizable data set! Plus, Pivetta is coming off his worst start of the year against the Rockies (4.0 IP, 6 ER). I think both offenses find success in this contest, so I'll play the over.
Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-102)
Los Angeles Angels (+180) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-218) | 9.0 (-102/-118)
The Angels (18-25) took game one of the Freeway Series over the Dodgers (29-16) last night in a 6-2 affair. The crosstown rivals are back at it tonight, and this game features a pitching matchup between Tyler Anderson and Clayton Kershaw. First pitch is set for 9:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
I'll round out my betting card with a square play, taking the Dodgers to win by 2+ runs tonight. They're the second-best team overall this season at 29-16, and Los Angeles has gone a respectable 24-21 (53.3%) against the run line this year. Their average margin of victory of +1.5 runs is the third-most in the Majors.
I don't anticipate the Angels finding much success offensively in this game. They're just 24th in the MLB in scoring (3.81). Against left-handed pitchers, which Kershaw is, the Halos are ranked dead last in both wRC+ (43) and wOBA (.233). The veteran hurler has also dominated the Angels in the past, as their current lineup is slashing just .121/.216/.190 against him over 58 at-bats. I'll play the Dodgers on the run line in tonight's MLB nightcap.
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: