Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, April 10th (2021)
It’s still very early in the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season, but we now have over a week’s worth of games to evaluate. Due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Nationals organization to begin the year, the Nationals and Mets got a later start than other teams and missed baseball’s opening weekend. But the Mets opened up their season on Monday, and the Nationals were finally able to kick off their year on Tuesday, albeit with a roster filled with replacement players. After a rough start to the year, many of the game’s top starting pitchers had bounce-back performances in their second starts. And while the early numbers don’t show as significant of a decrease in home runs as many were expecting with the new “deadened†baseballs in 2021, it does seem as if home runs will be down compared to what we saw over the last couple of years.
Here are my top betting plays for Saturday, April 10.
New York Mets over Miami Marlins: -1.5 (-114)
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MIA
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+1.5
-105.0
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o7.0
102
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+230
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
NYM
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-1.5
-114.0
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u7.0
-124
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-280
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As mentioned above, the New York Mets weren’t able to start their season until Monday because of a COVID-19 outbreak for their opening opponent. But once they did, deGrom looked like his usual self, tossing six shutout innings against the Phillies. Unfortunately, as is often the case for deGrom, the New York offense failed to back him and the bullpen imploded to allow five runs in the eighth inning of an eventual 5-3 loss.
That shouldn’t be the case on Saturday. deGrom will likely work deeper into the game against a struggling Miami offense in his second start of the year, and the Mets should be able to put up two runs on young Marlins starter Trevor Rogers and the Miami bullpen. You don’t have to overthink this one. This is about backing the best pitcher in baseball against one of the worst offenses in baseball, with a young and inconsistent opposing pitcher thrown in as insurance. Even if Trevor Rogers turns in a quality performance, deGrom should shut down this Miami offense enough for the Mets to cruise to a win in this one.
Mets-Marlins UNDER 7 runs (-124)
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MIA
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+1.5
-105.0
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o7.0
102
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+230
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| JOIN NOW |
NYM
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-1.5
-114.0
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u7.0
-124
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-280
|
We’re sticking with this Mets-Marlins matchup here. As mentioned above, the Mets have deGrom on the bump today. And the Miami lineup he is facing has been one of the worst in baseball through the first week of the season. Through the first seven games of the season, the Marlins are 1-6 with an offense that is in the bottom five in most offensive categories. They have only hit two home runs as a team, which is tied for the fewest in baseball with a Washington Nationals squad that has only played four games and is using a roster of replacement players. The Mets have also only played four games and have just three home runs.
Miami is batting just .210 as a team, and their .267 wOBA is good for 27th out of 30 teams. deGrom should find little resistance against this lineup. On the other side, Trevor Rogers is a former first-round pick who had an excellent Spring. In his first start of the year, he overcame some early jitters to hold the Cardinals to two earned runs over four innings. As long as he doesn’t completely implode and hand this game over to the Miami bullpen early on Saturday, this under should cash easily.
Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+118)
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CIN
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-1.5
+118.0
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o9.5
-112
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-132
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ARI
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+1.5
-142.0
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u9.5
-108
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+112
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On the complete flip side of the Miami Marlins, the Cincinnati Reds have the best offense in baseball through the first week of the season. Their .413 wOBA is the best in the majors, with the Dodgers being a distant second at .377. The Reds also lead the league in home runs (15), runs scored (63), RBI (60), ISO (.269), AVG (.310), and SLG (.580). In short, they’re locked in right now. On the mound for the Reds will be Jeff Hoffman, who looked solid in his first start for Cincinnati and could be in line for a good year now that he has escaped Coors Field in Colorado.
The Diamondbacks just got Kole Calhoun back from the injured list but not before losing their best player, Ketel Marte, to an injury of his own. They are batting just .205 with a .280 wOBA as a team, and losing Marte won’t help those numbers. On the mound, the Diamondbacks are countering with Riley Smith, a former 24th-round pick who had some success in a brief stint as a reliever in 2020 but who is unlikely to pitch deep into the game and doesn’t strike out a ton of batters. This Reds lineup hasn’t really seen Smith before, but that shouldn’t matter. The Reds should take this one easily and cover the 1 1/2-run line.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.