Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 13
Here come the runs!
After a soft first couple of weeks of the MLB season, teams are starting to see their offenses crackle to life (as evidenced by a 17-9-2 league O/U record over the previous two days.) It will be interesting to see if the books start shifting their totals up to adjust, or whether this is little more than an offensive blip.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Thursday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Philadelphia -1.5 (-108)
Novice MLB bettors will quickly learn that the -1.5 handicap bet is a terrific way to improve your profit margin when taking a team overwhelmingly favored to win. The Phillies are a whopping -200 for Thursday afternoon’s encounter with Baltimore, thanks largely to a major pitching mismatch featuring Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta vs. Orioles counterpart Thomas Eshelman. Pitching matchups are everything in baseball betting – and Arrieta is off to a terrific start, boasting a 2.45 ERA with 10 strikeouts over 11 innings. Eshelman posted a 6.50 ERA in 36 innings with the Orioles last year, and we don’t like his chances of outpitching Arrieta in a game Philadelphia should win by multiple runs.
1st Inning Result: Cincinnati (+220)
They’ve stumbled a little in the past week, but the Reds remain one of the most dangerous first inning teams in all of baseball. The top of Cincinnati’s lineup is averaging 0.61 runs per game in the opening frame, fifth-most in the majors. And this is no accident, either: Believe it or not, the Reds were the No. 1 first-inning team (0.81 runs per game) in the majors in 2019. And that’s very bad news for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who head to Great American Ballpark as one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. And those struggles start early, with Pittsburgh averaging a league-low 0.12 runs per game in the opening inning (and have yet to score a first-inning run on the road). At these odds, this pick is a solid one.
San Diego-L.A. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 (-110)
It bears repeating: Pitching matchups are among the most significant factors in how to shape your MLB wagers. And we have a good one in Los Angeles on Thursday, with San Diego fireballer Chris Paddock tangling with Dodgers sensation Julio Urias. Paddack is off to an up and down start so far but the strikeouts have been there; he has 21 over 22 2/3 innings, and already has a quality start vs. the Dodgers this year. Urias has been even better, boasting a 2.40 ERA and a .311 opposition OBP through his first 15 innings of 2020. These two teams have proven capable of putting up runs, but this feels more like a pitcher’s duel, so I’m taking the Under.
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