Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 1st
After the busiest day in MLB postseason history, today’s slate features five games, including one winner-take-all showdown in the American League. In the National League, the Marlins look to continue their perfect franchise record in postseason series with a victory over the Cubs, while the Padres, Reds, and Brewers try to stave off elimination. Here are the three best bets of the day. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+120)
Not only are the Miami Marlins in the postseason, but they’re also one game away from moving on to the NLDS. Think about that. A team picked to be one of the worst teams in the league, and a team that almost singlehandedly ended the MLB season when they had a COVID-19 outbreak just a few games into the season, is now one game away from being one of the final eight teams left. It’s truly remarkable. Do you know what else is truly remarkable? Yu Darvish.
Darvish had a rough (by his standards) three-game stretch in mid-September, but in his last start, he was lights out against the White Sox. He should have no problem shutting down the Marlins in this game. But more importantly, the Cubs lineup should be able to feast today against Sixto Sanchez. In his last two starts, Sanchez has really struggled, as he’s given up nine earned runs over 7.0 innings and has walked six. Maybe this Marlins team is just as magical as the teams from 1997 and 2003, but it’s hard to imagine the Cubs failing to win this game when the advantage is so obvious. And they won’t just win; they’ll win big.
St. Louis Cardinals-San Diego Padres over 8.5 (-110)
Since the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak, all anyone has talked about is how exhausted they must be from all the games they’ve played. So far, they haven’t looked exhausted at all. Yesterday they took it to the Padres by scoring four runs in the first inning while keeping their foot on the gas from there. Today, they put Adam Wainwright on the mound, and they’ll have to feel good about it since he’s been here before. Wainwright has made 14 career postseason starts and has a 2.81 ERA. So why do I like the over? Because Wainwright is 38 years old now, and despite eating up innings, he gives up runs. He’s facing the Padres who can score at will, and they’ll need to do so to force a Game 3.
Zach Davies will get the start for the Padres, and he has been prone to giving up runs this season as well. Both offenses should have success in generating scoring opportunities in this one, and this number should hit early. I was on the over in Game 1, and I saw nothing in that game to deter me from doing the same today.
Atlanta Braves over 3.5 runs (-130)
The Braves and Reds just played the longest scoreless game in postseason history, and while my gut tells me the Reds blew their chance, I’m not ready to count them out just yet. What I am confident in, however, is the Braves’ offense. Atlanta was the second-highest scoring team in the league during the regular season, and they should be able to bounce back against Luis Castillo today.
For anyone who is worried about their Game 1 performance, they went up against Trevor Bauer, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. Yes, they struggled against the Reds’ bullpen as well, but they found a way to win, and now they can play loose in Game 2. I won’t pick a side, however, because I don’t want to count the Reds out just yet. Nut even if the Braves lose, they’re going to score runs like they did all season long.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.