Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 24th
I went 3-2 yesterday and hit the Reds over 4.5 runs at +107 very comfortably. It was a much needed positive unit day after a rough end to last week. Today is the last Thursday of the regular season, which also means it’s the last off day for a lot of teams around the league. Because of the somewhat shortened slate, I was only able to find three bets that I really liked. I would have liked to have found five, but I would have been guessing on the last two. Here’s to back-to-back winning days. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Milwaukee Brewers-St. Louis Cardinals F5 under 3.5 runs (+118)
Corbin Burnes started off the season a bit shaky and despite a lowly 0-4 record, has actually been phenomenal over his last five starts, giving up just one earned run over that span. That single run did come against the Cardinals in a September 14th outing that saw him go just 4.2 innings, but considering how unhittable he’s been of late, and the starter on the opposing side, this bet feels like a no-brainer, especially at long odds. Kwang-hyun Kim is coming off his worst start of the season, a 5.1 inning outing that saw him give up five earned runs to the Pirates. This may worry some, but it was also his third start against the Pirates this season, and it’s not too shocking to see him with one bad start in that many. This will be his second start of the season against the Brewers and in his first, he went 7.0 innings and gave up just three hits. This is the first game in a five-game series of which both teams need wins in order to qualify for the postseason. I’m not sure which side I like more, but I know I like this to be a pitcher’s duel through five.
Kansas City Royals over 5.5 runs (+116)
The Royals bats just absolutely exploded last night against the Cardinals and were enough to get us the win in the over for the game. They went for 12 runs against a poor start from Carlos Martinez, and I like them to keep their bats hot today against a struggling Michael Fulmer. This will actually be the first time the Royals see Fulmer since July 27th. In that game, Fulmer went just 2.2 innings and gave up three home runs. Fulmer has yet to go more than three innings this season, so the Royals will have to jump all over him quickly in order for this one to go over. But even if they only manage two or three runs against him, the Tigers’ bullpen has not been known to shut down opposing offenses this season. The one thing I have noticed about the Royals of late is that they tend to take advantage of bad pitchers, and Fulmer is certainly that at the moment. I was tempted to take the Royals at -1.5, but I don’t trust the bullpen or that Kris Bubic will have five great starts in a row.
Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox F5 under 5.5 runs (-115)
The Red Sox will get their third look at Alex Cobb and are yet to have much success against him this season. In their previous two games, they only managed to score three runs off him, and in both outings, Cobb went for more than five innings. On the other side, Martin Perez gets the start for the Red Sox and he is coming off back to back solid starts against the Yankees and the Rays. In his only other outing against the Orioles this season, he went for 7.0 innings and gave up just one earned run. I trust Perez a lot more than I trust Cobb, but I also don’t trust the Red Sox offense very much. Because of that, I’ll go with the first five under, and then look for the teams to do most of their scoring once Cobb and Perez have been replaced.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.