Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, October 7th
Today features another full slate of MLB playoff games, and with the A’s on the verge of elimination, it could be the last day we see four games until the 2021 season. In the National League, the favorites got the job done in Game 1, with both the Braves and Dodgers taking a 1-0 series lead. In the only series that is currently tied up, the Yankees will turn to Masahiro Tanaka after Aaron Boone made one of the more questionable managerial decisions in recent memory by starting Deivi Garcia and leaving him in for just one inning. Here are today’s best bets. Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
View consensus odds for all of today’s MLB action >>
Oakland Athletics-Houston Astros over 9 (+100)
The A’s offer some value here at +110 on the moneyline, but who am I to second guess the Houston Astros in October? This team has been here before, and so far in the ALDS, they’re acting like it. That said, the A’s will turn to Jesus Luzardo to keep their season alive, and he has had some success against the Astros so far this season. In two starts, he’s gone 12.2 innings, given up four earned runs, and struck out 12. However, Luzardo’s ERA exploded as the season progressed, and he ended with it at 8.10. Plus, this is the playoffs, and the Astros are the far more experienced team. They’re going to score some runs against Luzardo because that is what they do.
That means that the A’s must score runs if they want to have any shot at forcing a Game 4. They’ll need to find success against Jose Urquidy, who pitched well against them back in early September. On top of that, of all the teams remaining in the AL playoffs, the A’s were the lowest-scoring team in the regular season. This all seems to be pointing to the A’s flying home to enjoy the offseason, but strange things happen in elimination games.
With their backs against the wall, the A’s should get some hits off Urquidy, who is due for a rough outing, and this one will clear nine easily.
New York Yankees ML (-130)
Did Aaron Boone even want to win Game 2? Seriously, what was the purpose of starting Deivi Garcia if he was just going to pitch one inning no matter how he did? There are many, myself included, who think the showmanship cost the Yankees the game, and JA Happ looked absolutely terrible coming in from the bullpen. Now, the Yankees turn to Masahiro Tanaka in a game that almost feels like a must-win after the momentum shift that occurred last night. The good news for New York is that if anyone can get the momentum back, it’s Tanaka.
In the Wild Card round against Cleveland, Tanaka had one of the worst postseason starts of his career, but a lot of that had to do with the fact that it was downpouring when he started, and then there was a 40-minute rain delay before the first inning even ended. It was a bizarre situation, and one you can just about throw out. Both the Rays and the Yankees have been hitting well in this series, but the Yankees definitely have a more favorable matchup in this game. Plus, they have more talent at the plate.
Some may be tempted to take the Yankees run line in order to get better odds. But be cautious — this is playoff baseball. Eat the juice and take the moneyline.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100)
The Marlins are still alive, but the Braves showed on Tuesday just how much better of a team they are than their divisional rivals from Miami. The Marlins bats came to life early, as they jumped out to a lead, but it wasn’t long before Atlanta turned on their high-powered offense. There aren’t many who would argue that the Marlins have already entirely overperformed, and it finally feels like the clock is about to strike midnight. Miami has never lost a playoff series in franchise history, but this is also only their third appearance since 1997.
All of that aside, the Braves are just the better team. They’re better at hitting, they’re better at pitching, and they look like they have put past postseason struggles behind them. Today, they will square off against Pablo Lopez. Lopez has two very good starts against the Braves this season. However, sandwiched in between them is a 1.2 inning, seven earned run performance.
With so much at stake, and the Braves looking like they’ve gotten their bats to wake up, I’m betting on Atlanta to take advantage of Lopez and take a solid 2-0 series lead.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.