Top 3 MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Monday, August 15 (2022)
The aces are truly wild tonight, and many of them are giving us great value on NRFIs. With so much value, I had to add in a bonus selection. So let’s not waste any more time because we have a lot to break down in my top NRFI plays of the slate.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
With a slate packed with aces, this may be the best pitching matchup on the board. Sandy Alcantara will be taking the mound for the Miami Marlins, and what else can you say about him? He’s arguably been the best pitcher in baseball. He enters with a 2.01 ERA and leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. So it should be no surprise that he’s been lights out in the first inning. Through 23 starts, he has 1.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’ll also have a great matchup for the top of the first as San Diego has the second-lowest first-inning scoring rate on the road.
On the other side, you have Joe Musgrove. His 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP are excellent, even when compared to Alcantara. However, Musgrove is a lot like Alcantara as he’s been tremendous in the first inning, and he also has a stellar matchup for this evening. Musgrove has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 20 starts. On top of that, the Marlins are dead last in first-inning runs per game on the season. This is the strongest NRFI play on the slate.
Pick: NRFI -150
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:20 pm ET
The Mets and the Braves are set to kick off another pivotal series as both teams are gunning for an NL East crown. Rookie phenom Spencer Strider will get the ball for Atlanta, and he should have much more luck in the first inning tonight compared to his last outing. Strider has used his overpowering stuff to be dominant in the first inning. He has a 2.08 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 47 percent strikeout rate through 13 starts. The Mets score quite a bit in the first inning, but most of their early scoring comes at home. They average 0.4 fewer runs per game on the road.
Being tasked with the bottom of the first is Carlos Carrasco. Now Carrasco’s first inning numbers may not look good, but they are inflated from a few bat outings earlier in the season. He has not allowed more than three runs in seven straight starts. For all of Atlanta’s firepower, they are only 17th in first-inning runs per game, and that ranking drops to 22md when they are at home. So expect these two to post matching zeroes early on.
Pick: NRFI -103
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 pm ET
This AL West matchup will feature two of the best right-handers in baseball. Shohei Ohtani will make his 20th start this year, and he’s been lights out this season. He enters with a 2.68 ERA and a strikeout rate that is amongst the top two percent of all qualified pitchers. His excellence has often started in the first innings as he holds a 2.37 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the first inning this year. As for his competition in this matchup, the Mariners do pose an early threat as they are 9th in first-inning runs per game and have superstar rookie Julio Rodriguez leading off the game. If Ohtani can get past him, he should be in great shape.
Getting the assignment for the bottom of the first will be Luis Castillo. He looked like the guy Seattle traded for in his last outing as he shut out the Yankees for eight innings while only allowing three hits and striking out seven. Now he gets to face an Angels lineup that is 18th in first-inning runs per game at home. However, just like Seattle, they also have a dangerous leadoff man of their own in Shohei Ohtani. Castillo should be in good shape if he can keep Ohtani in the park, and there is a good chance of that happening as he’s yet to allow a first-inning homer this season.
Pick: NRFI -150
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