Top 3 MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Thursday, August 11th (2022)
There’s good news and bad news on the diamond today. The bad news is that we only have eight games on the Major League Baseball schedule. The good news is that action starts as early as 1:05 p.m. ET with the Marlins taking on the Phillies to wrap up a three-game set. Let’s get into my top three No Runs First Inning (NRFI) wagers for today’s slate.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are playing great baseball right now as they go for their seventh straight win and 12th victory over the last 13 games. They’ll turn to Kyle Gibson while the Fish counter with Edward Cabrera. As I mentioned above, this one kicks off the day at 1:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park.
Cabrera got called up to the big leagues in June and has made four starts with the Marlins this year. The right-hander has been efficient, going 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 20.2 innings pitched. Most recently, Cabrera threw against the Cubs on Friday and held them scoreless over 5.0 innings. He did not allow a hit but issued three free passes in the no-decision effort.
Gibson has contributed in a major way during the Phillies’ current hot streak. The right-hander is 2-0 over the 13-game stretch and has allowed just three earned runs over 14.0 innings of work. That includes his most recent start, where he held the lowly Nationals to one earned run on two hits and a walk in 8.0 innings. Gibson now sits at 7-4 with a 4.36 ERA (51st), and 1.17 WHIP (34th) over 21 starts this year.
Gibson is in great form right now and should have no issue mowing down a slumping offense like Miami. The Marlins are currently 23rd in team batting average (.236) and 27th in OPS (.670). As for Cabrera, he hasn’t faced the Phillies yet in his career, and we only have four starts this season to work with in terms of usable data. However, considering he carved up the Cubs last time out and didn’t allow a hit, I think it’s worth a shot for him to keep a scoreless first inning.
Bet: Marlins at Phillies NRFI (-125 via DraftKings)
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
It’s a matinee rubber match from Houston this afternoon as the Rangers and Astros square off at 2:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park. Texas opts for Cole Ragans while Houston goes with Framber Valdez in the series finale.
Ragans has only made one start in his career, and that was against the White Sox on Thursday. The 24-year-old left-hander lasted 5.0 innings and allowed one unearned run on three hits and four walks. Ragans struck out three batters in the no-decision effort.
Valdez is quietly putting together a phenomenal season for the Astros this year. The southpaw is 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA (14th) and 1.15 WHIP (26th) over 21 starts. Valdez last pitched on Friday against the Guardians and posted a quality start. He limited Cleveland to three earned runs on seven hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a winning effort.
Valdez has pitched against Texas twice this season and held them to one earned run over 13.0 innings of work (0.69 ERA). The Rangers are hitting .208 against the lefty this year with no home runs and 12 strikeouts. With Ragans, similar to Cabrera above, we don’t have many usable data for this game. In his one Major League outing this year, he limited opponents to a .222 average on his 4-seam fastball, and Chicago hit .000 against his cutter with a 37.5% whiff rate. Even though it’s a minuscule sample size, those are pretty good “fastball numbers†to stack up against an Astros team that loves to hit fastballs. I’ll ride with NRFI in the finale of the Lone Star Series this afternoon.
Bet: Rangers at Astros NRFI (-120 via DraftKings)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Speaking of the White Sox, what a disappointment they’ve been this season. They’ll turn to Dylan Cease today as they attempt to salvage a series split with the fourth-place Royals. Kansas City will go with veteran Zack Greinke in the series finale scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium.
Despite an All-Star game snub, Dylan Cease is looking to throw his hat in the ring as a Cy Young contender. The right-hander is 12-4 on the year with a 1.98 ERA (2nd) and 1.16 WHIP (30th) over 22 starts. He’s also ranked third in baseball with 166 punchouts. Most recently, Cease picked up a win against the Rangers on Friday in quality start fashion. He went 6.0 innings and allowed one earned run on two hits and a trio of walks while striking out five.
Greinke has been serviceable for the Royals this season. The right-hander is just 3-7 over 18 starts this year but owns a 4.58 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Greinke has posted two straight clunkers, giving up a combined seven earned runs over 9.2 innings of work against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Despite the recent woes, it’s worth noting that Greinke owns a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this year. Opponents are hitting just .238 against him over nine starts at Kauffman in 2022. On the flip side, what else is there to say about Cease? The right-hander has allowed just five earned runs over his last 13 starts. It’s unreal. Let’s lock in NRFI in this A.L. Central finale this afternoon.
Bet: White Sox at Royals NRFI (-130 via DraftKings)
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