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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/4)

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We have a massive sports Saturday on the horizon, which includes a full 15-game slate in the MLB. I've sifted through the matchups and numbers and found three bets I'm locking in for today's action on the diamond. Here are my three favorite bets in the MLB.

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Saturday's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)

Seattle Mariners (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-145) | O/U 8.0 (+100/-120) 

The Astros took Game 1 of this three-game divisional series with the Mariners, notching a 5-3 home victory last night. The two sides are back at it this evening, and we have an excellent pitching matchup between Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX. 

It has been a rough start for the 12-20 Astros, but one of the bright spots has been tonight's starter Framber Valdez. The southpaw comes into this game at 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over three starts (17.1 IP). In his last two starts, which includes a game against the Rockies in the elevated Mexico City last weekend, Valdez has conceded just two earned runs on 11 hits over 12.1 innings. Furthermore, the lefty has a decent track record against the Mariners, holding them to a slash line of .283/.359/.294 over 127 at-bats. 

As for Gilbert, he's putting together a solid start to the 2024 campaign, entering at 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA (10th) and 0.80 WHIP (fourth). His 44 punchouts rank 11th. Gilbert has been serviceable against Houston in the past, holding them to a slash line of .271/.317/.481 over 133 head-to-head at-bats. Seattle also has a top-of-the-line bullpen to lean on, as this relief staff is ranked sixth in ERA (2.83) and first in WHIP (1.07). Let's take the under in Houston tonight. 

Bet: Under 8.0 Runs (-120)

San Diego Padres (+105) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) | O/U 9.0 (-105/-115) 

The Diamondbacks’ underwhelming season continues as they dropped last night's series opener to the Padres in a 7-1 affair. They'll look to bounce back tonight when they send Brandon Pfaadt to the bump. The Friars counter with Michael King in this divisional contest set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ. 

The biggest issue for the Diamondbacks right now is their offense. Over the last seven days, Arizona is ranked 27th in team batting average (.189) and 25th in OPS (.573). Seven of their last eight games have finished under this total of 9.0 runs. Over the eight-game sample size, the Diamondbacks are averaging just 1.9 runs per game. They'll run into Michael King tonight, who has held the current roster to a slash line of .174/.240/.304 over a limited 23-at-bat sample size. 

On the other hand, San Diego hasn't been crushing the ball either recently. They're a bottom-half unit in the MLB over the last week, ranking 18th in team batting average (.227) and 17th in OPS (.669). Over 27 head-to-head at-bats against Pfaadt, the Friars are slashing .222/.300/.296 against him with only two extra-base hits. I'll play the under at this inflated total of 9.0 runs. 

Bet: Under 9.0 Runs (-115)

Atlanta Braves (+145) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) | O/U 9.0 (+100/-120) 

The marquee series of the weekend takes place in Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Braves. Los Angeles won last night's game 4-3, and they'll look to make it two in a row when they send Tyler Glasnow to the mound. Atlanta opts for Bryce Elder in this National League showdown scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. 

Atlanta has run into some pitching-dominant organizations over the last week. They're just 3-4 in their last seven games against the Guardians (2-1), Mariners (1-2) and Dodgers (0-1). Over the last seven days, the Braves have had arguably the worst offense in baseball, ranking 28th in team batting average (.183) and dead last in both OPS (.485) and home runs (two). 

Things won't get any easier tonight as Atlanta squares off against Glasnow, who's an impressive 5-1 (most wins in MLB) with a 2.72 ERA (23rd) and 0.93 WHIP (12th). Furthermore, the right-hander has owned Atlanta in the past, limiting them to a slash line of .151/.262/.189 over a sizable 53-at-bat sample size. Los Angeles' bullpen is finally finding its footing, where they've climbed to 11th in ERA (3.52) and seventh in WHIP (1.11). I don't see the Braves offense turning things around tonight, so I'll take the under on their team total. 

Bet: Atlanta Braves Under Team Total 3.5 Runs (-105)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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