Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/12)
Saturday's MLB slate features several marquee pitching matchups, including Zack Wheeler taking on Yu Darvish and Jacob deGrom squaring off against Framber Valdez. Below, I'll dive into each of those games, as well as a third, from a sports betting perspective. Here are my three favorite MLB picks and bets today.
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Saturday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers (+102) vs. Houston Astros (-120) | O/U 6.5 (-122/+100)
Let's pick it up in the Lone Star State, where the Silver Boot Series resumes between the Rangers (47-48) and the Astros (55-39). Texas took last night's opener 7-3, and they'll turn to Jacob deGrom to try and keep things rolling. Houston counters with Framber Valdez in this divisional showdown, which gets underway at 7:35 p.m. ET from Daikin Park in Houston, TX.
At first, I was looking to make a contrarian play on the over in this contest. I mean, you only see 6.5-run totals around playoff time, or if we have a pitching matchup of this magnitude. After sifting through some of the numbers, I think this total is warranted, and I'm willing to take a +100 shot on the under 6.5 runs.
These have been two of the best pitchers in the Majors this season. Valdez is 10-4 with a 2.90 ERA (18th) and a 1.15 WHIP (26th). He has limited Texas' current roster to a slash line of .214/.277/.357 over 196 at-bats. As for deGrom, he's 9-2 with a 2.29 ERA (sixth) and a 0.91 WHIP (fourth). Houston is slashing just .171/.171/.341 against him over 41 at-bats.
Factor in that Houston (3.31) and Texas (3.41) are third and fourth, respectively, in relief ERA this season, and it's looking like runs will be tough to come by in this game. I'm taking the under.
Bet: Under 6.5 Runs (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies (-152) vs. San Diego Padres (+128) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Heading out to the West Coast, the Phillies (54-40) and Padres (51-44) are set to play their middle game of a three-game weekend series. Zack Wheeler, the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award (-150 at FanDuel Sportsbook), will take on Yu Darvish in the pitching matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
I'm also expecting to see a lack of scoring in this National League clash. Starting with Wheeler, he has been lights out recently. The right-hander is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA (third) and a 0.84 WHIP (second) this season. His 148 strikeouts are the second-most in the Majors. Over his last six starts (40 innings), Wheeler has posted a 0.68 ERA. He'll take on a Padres offense that's just 18th in wOBA (.306) and 23rd in ISO (.126) over the last seven days.
On the other hand, we have Darvish taking the ball. He has great head-to-head numbers against the Phillies, as their current lineup is slashing just .221/.259/.435 against him over 154 at-bats. Darvish only logged 3.2 innings in his season debut against the Diamondbacks on Monday, but even if he has another truncated start, the Padres can lean on their top-tier bullpen. Their relief staff is second in ERA (3.24) and third in opposing batting average (.218). Give me the under.
Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-108) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-108) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)
Let's wrap things up in Orange County with this Interleague matchup between the Diamondbacks (46-49) and the Angels (46-48). Zac Gallen gets the nod for the Snakes, while the Halos opt for Yusei Kikuchi. First pitch is slated for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
These teams are pretty close from a records standpoint. However, I still believe that there's a sizable gap between the teams in terms of raw talent. With Arizona ace Zac Gallen heading to the hill, I will gladly back them in a pick ’em spot. Gallen (5.15 ERA) is finally finding his form, as he has logged a 0.69 ERA in his last two outings (13 innings). The right-hander has owned the Angels in the past, as their current roster is slashing .197/.246/.295 against him over 61 at-bats.
On the offensive side, Arizona still boasts one of the best offenses in the game, ranking fourth in scoring (5.09 runs per game) this season. Over the last seven days, they're better than Los Angeles in both wOBA (.315 vs. .304) and ISO (.174 vs. .144). Even if Kikuchi (3.02 ERA) turns in a solid start, the Snakes can still come alive late against the Angels' 28th-ranked bullpen (5.11 ERA). If Arizona is serious about making a run at the playoffs, then this is a team that they need to pummel. I'll back them in a coin flip game.
Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-108)