Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/19)
Between UFC 318 and a full slate of Major League Baseball, we're set up for another fantastic sports Saturday. I'm keeping it on the diamond for my best bets today, and below you'll find my top MLB wagers. Here are my three favorite MLB bets today.
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Saturday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Chicago White Sox (+125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-118)
Let's get things started in the Steel City, where the White Sox (33-65) are looking to build on a 10-1 rout of the Pirates (39-59) on Friday. They'll turn to Adrian Houser to keep things rolling, while the Buccos opt for Mike Burrows. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA.
The disrespect that Houser continues to get in the sports betting market is wild. In nine starts (57.2 innings) with the White Sox this season, the right-hander is 5-2 with a 1.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's going to be a hot commodity at the trade deadline next month, and I expect him to mow down this lousy Pirates offense tonight. Over the last 14 days (eight games), the Buccos are dead last in both wOBA (.227) and ISO (.087).
Still, Pittsburgh is priced as high as -150 on the Moneyline in this contest. That's insane. They're just 1-9 in their last 10 games, while the White Sox are a modest 4-6. Not much separates these clubs this season, so once again, I have to question why Pittsburgh is such a large favorite. Give me the White Sox as underdogs with one of their most consistent pitchers taking the mound.
Bet: White Sox Moneyline (+125)
Baltimore Orioles (+110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-135) | O/U 9.0 (-115/-105)
The Rays (51-47) snapped their four-game slide last night, hammering the last-place Orioles (43-53) 11-1 in each team's first contest out of the All-Star break. The divisional foes are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Dean Kremer and Zack Littell. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET from George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL.
This total of nine runs is about 0.5 runs too high, in my opinion, so I'm rushing to the window to lock in the under at -105. Neither offense has been very potent over the last 14 days. For Tampa, they're 28th in wOBA (.278) and 29th in ISO (.101). Baltimore is 21st (.300) and 17th (.152) in those respective categories. Over the Rays' last 11 games, they're averaging a pedestrian four runs per game. That includes last night's outlier performance where they registered 11 runs.
I don't anticipate either offense finding much success here. The Rays are slashing just .205/.271/.318 against Kremer over 88 at-bats. As for the O's, they'll take on Littell, who has posted a 2.18 ERA across his last four starts (23.2 innings). Baltimore has scored two combined runs during its current 0-3 run. With the total at a flat nine runs, I love the under tonight in Tampa.
Bet: Under 9.0 Runs (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers (+115) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The Brewers (57-40) notched their eighth straight victory in a 2-0 affair against the Dodgers (58-40) last night, courtesy of a six-inning, 10-strikeout gem from Quinn Priester. They'll opt for Freddy Peralta tonight, while Los Angeles sends Emmet Sheehan to the bump. This National League clash gets underway at 9:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
We could be in for another pitcher's duel tonight in L.A. Starting with Los Angeles' Sheehan, he has been sharp this season in three outings (13.1 innings), logging a 2.03 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. However, he hasn't worked past the fifth inning this season, and this is where Milwaukee could have an edge. Los Angeles' bullpen is just 23rd in both ERA (4.37) and opposing average against (.254).
Meanwhile, Peralta continues his dominant season. He just faced the Dodgers in Milwaukee on July 7th, blanking them over six innings in a 9-1 victory. The right-hander improved to 11-4 (most wins in the MLB) with a 2.66 ERA (13th) and a 1.06 WHIP (16th). Los Angeles' current roster is slashing an underwhelming .212/.273/.356 against him over 118 at-bats. I'll gladly take a +115 underdog flier on Peralta and the red-hot Crew tonight.
Bet: Brewers Moneyline (+115)