Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/16)
There are 10 MLB games today, with seven starting before 4:00 p.m. ET. In one of those early games, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair between the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds. I also discuss why I expect the Chicago White Sox offense to continue to struggle against the Tampa Bay Rays. Then, I highlight why the Houston Astros are well-positioned for an easy win over the Colorado Rockies tonight. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Thursday, April 16th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 4-5-0 (-0.8 units)
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league meet today for an afternoon baseball game. The Giants have scored just 55 runs this season, which is the fewest in the Majors. That's an average of just 3.05 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Reds haven't been much better, scoring just 64 runs, the fourth-fewest in the league.
Yesterday, these teams combined for 11 runs, thanks to the Reds scoring eight. However, the Giants haven't scored more than two all series, and have now scored two or fewer runs in four consecutive games.
Ultimately, this total will come down to Giants starter Landen Roupp. He struggled against the Mets in his second start of the season, giving up five earned runs and seven hits in just 4.2 innings. But he's been great in his other two starts, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings. With how inconsistent the Reds' offense has been, I'll back Roupp here, as both teams struggle to produce runs.
Pick: Under 8.0 Runs (-105)
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
Fading the White Sox’s offense has been a surefire way to make money this season. They have scored just 57 runs this season, which is the third-fewest in the Majors. Through 18 games, Chicago has scored more than three runs just six times, and they have been shut out three times.
Tonight, the White Sox are tasked with facing Rays starter Steven Matz. He has allowed just three earned runs in his last two starts, after he struggled in his first start of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Opponents have scored three or fewer runs in each of Matz’s last two starts, and both offenses he faced were significantly better than the White Sox. The Yankees, who he held to just one run, rank 14th in runs scored, and the Twins, who he held to two, rank fourth.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-105)
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros
At the beginning of April, the Rockies shockingly swept the Astros, outscoring them 23-9 in a three-game series. However, everything has changed for the Rockies since then, losing six consecutive games, with five of those losses by multiple runs.
Rockies starter Juan Mejia doesn't have a lot of experience against this current Astros lineup, but he's allowing them to hit .353 against him in his career. While Mejia won't pitch long into this game, the Rockies’ bullpen has been a bit of a problem this year, allowing 75 hits, the second-most in the league.
Of course, the Astros will have to turn those hits into runs, which hasn't been easy against Colorado's bullpen and its 3.34 ERA. But to cover this run line, Houston’s bats won't need to be overly effective, as the Rockies have scored just 72 runs this season, tied for 22nd in the league.
While the Astros' pitching has been a disaster this season, including Ryan Weiss, who enters tonight's start with a 7.36 ERA, the offense has scored the second-most runs in the league.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+109)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.