Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/25)
Let’s dive into our top MLB bets. There is a good slate of games to choose from, and we’ll look at some to play for this Thursday, April 23.
Thursday’s MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (+100) @ Kansas City Royals (-120) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-102)
After grabbing the first game of this series, the Blue Jays dropped the next two, so they’ll be hoping to come away with a split. The good news about the Toronto lineup is they are finding ways to get on base with the fifth-best walk ratio (10.0%), but with all the power bats they have, it isn’t there as they are 28th in hard-hit percentage (35.5%) and 26th xSLG (.317). Jose Berrios turned it around in the second half of last season and brought that momentum into 2024. He has the most wins amongst starters and is second with a 0.85 ERA.
The Royals lost three straight before picking up back-to-back wins. The lineup is coming through, scoring 4.68 runs per game, but the pitching has been fantastic, as they’re fifth with a 3.16 ERA. Cole Hogan is coming off a terrible start, as he tied a career-high, allowing seven earned against the Orioles.
The Jays aren’t hitting as well as the O’s, but Berrios looks unhittable, which will help Toronto split this series.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers (-125) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) | O/U 7 (-118/-102)
The Brewers broke their two-game losing streak, which could help them come away with a split against the Pirates. The Brewers have not looked like one of the better offenses in the league, as they are hitting just .131 in this series and scoring six runs in three games. They might not need a lot of offense with Freddy Peralta on the mound; he has three quality starts out of four, and his 36.7% strikeout rate is in the 95th percentile.
The Pirates started the season red hot, winning nine of their first 11, but they have slumped, going 4-10 since. The pitching and hitting have struggled, as their .210 batting average since April 9 is 27th, and their 4.17 ERA is 24th. Mitch Keller gets the ball, and it’s been a brutal start to the season for him, with a 4.80 ERA. He’s approaching some career-worse metrics, including a 46.8% hard-hit rate and a .271 xBA against.
This is the pitching matchup the Brew Crew needs to grab the win.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-125)
San Diego Padres (-155) @ Colorado Rockies (+130) | O/U 10.5 (-120/+100)
The NL West is a competitive division for everyone except the Rockies. They struggle from both sides, scoring the fifth-fewest runs per game (3.60) and having the worst ERA (5.61). Dakota Hudson’s first season at Colorado is not going well. He has a 4.80 ERA and the Rockies are 0-4 in his starts.
For the Padres, not much was expected after they got rid of some of their big names, including not re-signing NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and trading Juan Soto. One piece they got from the Soto trade is Randy Velasquez, and he’s coming in after an excellent debut for San Diego, going five innings and allowing one earned against the Blue Jays.
It’s always tough for pitchers making their first start in the thin Colorado air, which Velasquez will be doing. And with Hudson struggling, the Padres should have plenty of offense.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: