Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/12)
Welcome to the Friday baseball slate as we're over two months into the year with teams showing their true colors. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best bets across the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunity. It's the best time of year.
We had a winning week last time out thanks to the Washington Nationals’ 14-run effort and the Guardians putting up runs early. Let's do it again. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for the Friday, June 12th slate.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 17-16
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
We open up in Cleveland, where Tanner Bibee takes the ball against a Tigers lineup that has been spinning its wheels lately. Detroit comes in losing seven of its last ten, and that cold stretch lines up nicely with what Bibee can do when he is locked in. That's the reasoning why Bibee's total outs number is inflated here, which I'm a bit hesitant on. Bibee gets to a point in the order where teams start to recognize him the third time through, with opponents’ averages jumping up to .271 against him the third time through the lineup. If you look at his recent numbers, Bibbee recorded a 5.08 ERA throughout the month of May. He's coming off an outstanding outing against Texas, yes, but you can't fall victim to recency bias. With a top-10 bullpen unit Guardians trust and a lead they should be able to build, there is little reason to leave him out there to push past 17.5 outs. Give me the shorter leash.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Outs (-114 at NoVig)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Heading to Milwaukee, it's Jacob Misiorowski’s world and we're all just living in it. The 6-7 righty has been dealing all year with a 1.50 ERA, 116 strikeouts, and a 0.81 WHIP, all league-leading. He's spun 7.0 IP in four of his last five outings and the Brewers are at home, where they've hit the ball better. The Phillies counter with Andrew Painter who has been dreadful of late, giving up six runs in 4.2 IP last time out and pitching to a 6.65 road ERA. Opponents have been mashing him and I don't exactly think today will be any different. This feels like a little too easy of a bet given the circumstances but feel free to take some alt lines here as Milwaukee might dominate.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs (-111 at FanDuel)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Finally tonight we have a matchup between NL East foes with the Mets hosting the Braves. The biggest sporting event to happen in New York this week, right? Nolan McClean goes for New York and he's seemed to have found his groove of late with a 1.64 ERA over his last pair of starts. He's also dominated the Braves in what little they've seen of him as Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson have gone a combined 0-for-9 off him. The Braves counter with Spencer Strider who hasn't dazzled, but he's been consistent with a 3.77 May ERA. The Mets’ offense I'm not as scared of, ranking 27th in run production this year. What really stands out to me for this game are the bullpens. Atlanta is the only team to boast a bullpen ERA under 3.00 in all MLB. The Mets aren't far behind with the sixth best bullpen ERA. Even if one starter struggles, I imagine the damage control will be ready and that at least one of these squads will struggle with run production today.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)