Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/5)
Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. We're over two months into the season, with teams showing their true colors. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks across the day.
Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We hit a nice +160 bet last week, but this time let's sweep the board, shall we? Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, June 5th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 15-15 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Tampa Bay vs. Miami Marlins
Starting in the Sunshine State, Miami hosts Tampa with the Rays trying to hold on to the American League East lead. We're going to start with a player prop here, and I'm going right to Drew Rasmussen.
After coming off an outing where he allowed five runs in four innings, I'm shocked at this run line. Miami isn't the best offense, but over the last month of play, its on-base percentage (OBP) ranks in the middle of the pack.
After starting the season strong, the Rays starter has taken a step back with a 4.13 ERA in his last five starts, allowing a higher batting average against with more walks and more home runs.
If you follow my NBA articles, it's very easy to take overs against the likes of Utah and Washington, and I do. But a lot of the time, sportsbooks overcompensate, and there becomes great value in the under. This is that opportunity.
Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs (+100)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
In Globe Life Field, we have Parker Messick and Kumar Rocker going toe-to-toe in what should be a solid game. And it will be one where the Guardians jump out early.
Rocker has historically struggled early in games this season, with a whopping 9.90 ERA in the first inning. The first time through the lineup, Rocker has allowed opponents to hit .281, and it's night and day compared to Messick.
The Cleveland southpaw has held opponents to a .158 batting average the first time through the order with just a .490 OPS. The first five innings Moneyline is a little too juiced for my liking, so let’s go with the first three innings Moneyline.
Pick: Guardians First Three Innings Moneyline (-135)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Finally, tonight we're heading out West for a National League battle between the Nationals and the Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly gets the start for Arizona, and he's been inconsistent this season, allowing over five earned runs in three of his first four starts before allowing no more than three runs in five straight starts.
I expect that trend to stop today.
Washington has been a surprising team offensively, ranking fifth in runs scored since May 1st. Foster Griffin starts for Washington, and he's also taken a step back of late with a 4.86 ERA throughout the month of May, compared to a 2.51 ERA in April.
Combine that with Washington owning the seventh-worst bullpen ERA in the Majors, and I'm expecting a healthy number of runs today. The total is already creeping up a bit, but I'm still jumping on it at these odds.
Pick: Over 9.o Runs (-104)