Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/31)
Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. The All-Star break is in the rearview mirror, and playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We wobble back and forth between green and red on the year, but with the number of plus-money bets hit, it's still been a solid season. Be sure to check out my MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Anyways, here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, July 31st.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 25-26
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
In case you haven't noticed, Paul Skenes hasn't exactly been the Paul Skenes we're all used to. On the surface, a 3.65 ERA isn't anything to be worried about, but his recent starts have been concerning. One of those outings was against Cincinnati, where he allowed six hits over five innings.
Skenes has also been worse on the road this season, with his ERA and batting average against a tick up. In general, I'm fading Skenes and the Pirates today, but there are a few props of value specific to the starting pitcher.
The Reds aren't exactly a powerhouse, but they make good contact. They get home-field advantage and showed less than a month ago how they can handle the Pirates starter. Either he goes long in the game and allows enough hits to push this over, or he gets pulled early because of his performance. Either way, there's some value on this play.
Pick: Paul Skenes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-103 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics
In the wild, wild west of California, we have a matchup between the Tigers and A's. Based on where this game is played, it's always tempting to take the over, but I'm going to zag a little bit here.
Casey Mize takes the bump for Detroit, and he's a big reason why I think run production will be limited today for the Athletics. The Tigers starter owns a 2.70 ERA with a 2.91 ERA in his last four starts.
Mize has been dominant against lefties all season. Six of the projected nine A's batters swing from the left side of the plate. The Athletics’ run production has also hit a rut, ranking 27th in baseball in total runs over the last month of play.
For the A's, they counter with Jeffrey Springs. The southpaw hasn't been great no matter how you slice it, but the Tigers have taken a step back offensively against lefties, so that's a minor plus.
What really is not great for the Athletics is their bullpen. The home team bullpen has a 7.22 ERA over their last month of play with over 100 innings of sample. That's abysmal. There are plenty of angles to take here if you want alt bets, but I'm simply taking the Tigers to comfortably handle business here.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+113 at Kalshi)
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Keeping it simple here, I'm taking the better team at home to win. A shocking bet, I know, but sometimes you have to keep things simple.
Hunter Brown starts for Houston, and he's been even better than his 3.45 ERA suggests. He's limited opponents to a .192 batting average, and Texas has been a bottom-half offense over their last month of play and even worse over the course of the entire season.
Nathan Eovaldi goes for Texas, and he's been fine. Nothing special. A 4.05 ERA will get the job done. It's the bullpen I'm worried about. Since July 1st, the Rangers’ bullpen owns a 5.75 ERA, ranking 26th in the league. The Astros are the much hotter team at 8-2 over their last 10, and I just trust them to take the division lead here. The odds are friendly enough to make a bet on it.
Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (-117 at Kalshi)