Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/18)
Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. Playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We had another winning week and have done well for seven-straight (!) outings. Be sure to check out my NRFI articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, September 11th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 3-1 | This Season: 40-33
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting with a game that might not be particularly exciting, since neither team is in the playoff race, we have the Kansas City Royals facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh, who has honestly had an up-and-down season, with a 6.25 ERA in July. But he's settled in with a 3.06 ERA over his last six starts.
The starter that's actually been better is on the other side - Randy Dobnak. The Royals starter owns a 2.73 ERA, and that number sits at 1.54 on the road. He's limited opponents to three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts, and in the nine at-bats Pirates hitters have faced Dobnak, not a single one has recorded a hit.
Since the All-Star break, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks in the top 10. Over the last month, the Royals own a top-13 mark. I'm surprised this number is this high, and I will bet on the under. Feel free to take some alts here.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-135 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies
For another game that's not quite exciting, we have a player prop for you in the league’s best offensive ballpark. Colorado hasn't technically named a starter, but I'm guessing it will be Ryan Feltner. For Seattle, they should be just fine offensively, and specifically J.P. Crawford.
The expected leadoff hitter for the Mariners has been better against righties and has been hot lately, posting a .309 batting average throughout September. He gets positive matchup splits, he's playing hot and he’s hitting in the friendliest ballpark in the country for offensive production. He should see five at-bats to get there.
Finding this prop at plus odds is a gift. If you'd prefer to bet on his hits + runs + RBIs over, I support that as well, but I'm keeping it simple with just total bases.
Pick: J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 Total Bases (+126 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
We have a delightful matchup to cap off the evening between the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot, but they are still trying to lock in home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs while also trying to reach Tampa Bay in the standings.
Meanwhile, Arizona is still trying to claw its way back into the final Wild Card spot and catch up with the red-hot San Diego Padres. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the nod for Arizona, and the southpaw has been electric with a 2.62 ERA. He's been even better at home, and the lefty-heavy Yankees lineup will be limited.
Even Aaron Judge has gone just 5-for-33 against Rodriguez in his lifetime. But Gerrit Cole is no slouch either. He owns a 3.67 ERA this season but has struggled lately, with a 6.48 ERA over his last three starts. On top of that, against the projected starting lineup of the Diamondbacks, Cole has allowed a 1.371 OPS.
It’s only 23 at-bats, but I still value any data over no data. At plus odds, it's an easy bet to back the underdog here, who I think should be favored.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+117 at Kalshi)