Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/4)
Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. Playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We had another winning week last week and have done well for five straight outings. Be sure to check out my NRFI articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, September 4th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 35-31
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
Starting in Miami, the Marlins host the Chicago Cubs as both teams contend for the Wild Card. With the Phillies passing Chicago for the final playoff hosting spot, and the Marlins still trying to chase down the Diamondbacks and Padres, this is a huge game.
Shota Imanaga gets the nod for Chicago. The lefty hasn't been playing his best ball of late, allowing 16 runs in his last 22.2 innings. The long ball has been an issue, and Miami's offense has been picking up over the last month of play. An offense that has been nearly unstoppable, however, has been the Cubs, whose 19 runs is the most in the Majors since August 1st.
If you look at either bullpen in that same time period, neither team ranks better than 20th in reliever ERA, so there's a very real shot at late run production as well. Simply put, I'm expecting the bats to stay hot here, and the total is not giving enough credit to that idea.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-122 at BetRivers)
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up on the other coast, Los Angeles hosts Washington in what could be a bloodbath. Spoilers, I know. But the Dodgers are coming off a weak outing against the Cardinals, and I imagine they will bounce back against Jackson Kent.
The Washington starter has not had the best start to his career with a 5.59 ERA, especially on the road. He allowed 11 runs over his first three starts, and I imagine the Dodgers are ready to feast on the southpaw, who has reverse splits when it comes to facing left-handed hitters.
Arguably more important is Blake Snell on the other side. The lefty himself has been elite recently with a 1.17 ERA over his last four starts. Combine this with how Washington's bullpen ERA ranks 28th in the last month of play while the Dodgers rank in the top 10, and I expect this to be a dominating performance by Los Angeles.
I'm sticking with a simple run line bet, but feel free to get creative with it if you want to take some alts.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-125 at Kalshi)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Texans
Finally, tonight we have Houston hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I'm keeping it simple with a player prop. Merrill Kelly takes the bump for Arizona, and he has some splits that will help a certain Astro pop off tonight, both metaphorically and physically. Kelly has struggled a bit recently, with a 5.85 ERA in his last six starts; that's note one.
Note two is how lefties have an OPS of .905 off the Arizona starter, compared to .759 for righties. The third note is for Yordan Alvarez, who I will be targeting. The Astros designated hitter has been swinging it relatively well with a .284 average and .874 OPS in his last 30 games and a .941 OPS in his last 15 games.
Alvarez also crushes it off righties and at home with a 1.100+ OPS in both respective splits. He'll bat top-three in the lineup, so he’ll get plenty of swings, and I think this is another prop that will sail over its line if you want to get funky. This will be a two-unit bet since it has a bit of juice, but I'd stick to one unit if you're teasing it out.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150 at Fanatics Sportsbook)