Top 3 MLB Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/28)
Chris Sale will be on the mound for the Braves today, and I expect him and Red Sox starter Payton Tolle to keep the game in Boston very low scoring. Then, I explain why the Astros are being seriously undervalued against the Rangers and how the Cubs and Pirates can put together another exciting offensive display. Here are my top MLB picks for Thursday, May 28th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Runs are hard to come by for the Red Sox in every game, as they have scored the fewest runs in the league this season. But today, things are going to be even more difficult than usual, as they face Chris Sale.
Sale has allowed just 40 hits in 62 innings, has struck out 72 batters, has an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of just 0.87. He also has a solid history against this Red Sox lineup, striking out 12 of the 35 batters he's faced.
While the Braves have scored the third-most runs in the league, their offense also has a tough matchup today. Red Sox starter Payton Tolle has allowed just 10 earned runs in 36.2 innings, and he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts.
What makes this feat even more impressive is that Tolle has pitched at least six innings in four starts and allowed more than two earned runs in just one of those games.
For as good as the Braves have been offensively, they've struggled of late, scoring one or fewer runs in three of their last four games. This will be a pitcher's duel, and I wouldn't be surprised if this ends 1-0.
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (+103)
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
The Rangers are at home, but I can't think of any other reason why they should be heavily favored in this game. Sure, Nathan Eovaldi is on the mound, but he's hardly had his best stuff this season.
Eovaldi has a 3.64 ERA, and he's allowed at least five runs in three different starts. Even when he's at his best, the Rangers haven't offered much run support, leading to Texas being just 5-5 in games started by Eovaldi.
Then there is Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti. He has been outstanding this season, allowing more than one earned run in just one of his seven starts.
Arrighetti pitched at least five innings in each of his appearances, and the Astros have lost just one of his starts. However, that loss can hardly be called his fault, as the Astros scored only one run in the game.
Arrighetti also has phenomenal numbers against the Rangers. In 32 at-bats, the Rangers have recorded just three hits, for a batting average of .094.
While Eovaldi threw seven shutout innings against the Astros on May 17th, he's allowing the Astros to hit .252 against him in his career, with five home runs. Plus, the Astros are hot, winning five of their last six games.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (+130)
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
If there were ever a time to fade Paul Skenes, this is the game. He's struggled in each of his last two starts, giving up at least four earned runs and six hits in each appearance.
While Skenes still leads the league with a 0.82 WHIP, he's about to face the offense that has scored the seventh-most runs in the league. And for as dominant as Skenes has been since entering the Majors, the Cubs have hit pretty well against him - a team batting average of .253 with seven extra-base hits.
Then there is the Pirates' offense. They have scored 270 runs, which ranks fifth in the Majors, and they've scored at least four runs in four of their six games against the Cubs this season.
Cubs starter Colin Rea has also struggled of late, and he now has an ERA of 4.83. He's allowed at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts and in four of his last six overall. Additionally, Rea doesn't have great numbers against the Pirates, allowing Pittsburgh to hit .321 off him with 10 extra-base hits and 14 earned runs.
Then there is the fact that these teams have played back-to-back games featuring at least 13 runs. After the first two games between these teams featured seven runs or fewer, three of the last four have seen at least one team reach that threshold by themselves.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-107)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.